Let's not forget that Switzerland is not part of the Euro Zone. I suspect that the Eurocrats at the ECB despise Swiss independence and would be happy to see Credit Suisse and the Swiss National Bank suffer.
Only up to a point. Credit Suisse is a Swiss bank, but it is also the 17th largest European bank by total assets (~EU700 Billion for FY2022).
To put that in perspective, it is bigger than Silvergate, SVB, and SBNY combined. I'm not sure but even the FRC bailout on top might still not total more than CS imminent failure will be by itself.
And right behind CS are UBS and Deutsche Bank--and while I haven't checked recently I seem to recall that Commerzbank has also been wobbly for a time.
I don't doubt the ECB wants to see some pain visited upon the Swiss--but too much pain and the backlash swamps the ECB. (It's like a foul in the NFL: the ref never sees the original foul only the retaliation.)
Yup. But the real fun will come from the CDS and other such instruments.
Oh, and don't get me started on Commerzbank. I was a long-standing customer who always maintained a 6-figure Euro balance with them. They summarily closed my account last year and left me scrambling to find a new way for my European customers (who comprise roughly half my sales) to pay me.
I’m reading this move as the authorities in Europe being more concerned with the politically-expedient need to lower interest rates, and they’ll deal with the banking problems later. What do you think?
As bad as inflation has been in the US, it has been generally worse in Europe--and yet the ECB was slow to raise interest rates, the traditional therapy for curing high inflation.
When the Fed began raising rates last March, it was the first major central bank to do so. Very likely in direct consequence the dollar appreciated significantly against other major currencies--and both the euro and the pound flirted with dollar parity, if you recall.
The need to defend the euro as much as anything else forced Lagarde's hand to begin raising rates within the euro zone, but, as the ongoing debacle at Credit Suisse demonstrates, European banks are just as vulnerable to rising interest rates as US banks, potentially more so. While Credit Suiise is the European bank getting the bad press of late, it is hardly the only European bank that is struggling, and for the same reasons US banks are getting hit with liquidity problems: raising rates destroys the value of interest-bearing securities, making them difficult to sell and thus impairing bank liquidity.
And as we are seeing, European bankers are no smarter in this regard than their American cousins. Once interest rate rises became the global norm, portfolios of interest bearing securities were GUARANTEED to lose value. Why buy low yield assets in a high-yield environment? Especially when default risks have not risen significantly (outside of central bank manipulations, a common force pushing up interest rates on securities is rising default risk. If banks think the likelihood the debt will not be repaid is going up, they will demand higher interest as a risk premium).
It will be interesting to see if the ECB rate hike ends up being a case of history rhyming. Just before Lehman collapse--and it was Lehman's UK office that led the downward spiral--the ECB raised interest rates right into the face of a developing European recession. Given the parlous nature of the European economy in the wake of Russia sanctions and Putin temper tantrums, Credit Suisse is hardly the only reason now might not be a good time for the ECB to pursue a 50bps rate hike.
Ultimately, however, if the ECB does nothing and inflation remains high, the European economy is still going to take in the shorts. They're betting the 50bps rate hike will do more to bring down inflation (an economic positive) than it will to bring down European banking (an economic negative). That's fundamentally the same bet Powell and the FOMC are going to be challenged to make next week.
At this point I won't even attempt to predict what the Fed is going to do. This one is a total crapshoot at the moment.
Let's not forget that Switzerland is not part of the Euro Zone. I suspect that the Eurocrats at the ECB despise Swiss independence and would be happy to see Credit Suisse and the Swiss National Bank suffer.
Only up to a point. Credit Suisse is a Swiss bank, but it is also the 17th largest European bank by total assets (~EU700 Billion for FY2022).
To put that in perspective, it is bigger than Silvergate, SVB, and SBNY combined. I'm not sure but even the FRC bailout on top might still not total more than CS imminent failure will be by itself.
And right behind CS are UBS and Deutsche Bank--and while I haven't checked recently I seem to recall that Commerzbank has also been wobbly for a time.
I don't doubt the ECB wants to see some pain visited upon the Swiss--but too much pain and the backlash swamps the ECB. (It's like a foul in the NFL: the ref never sees the original foul only the retaliation.)
Yup. But the real fun will come from the CDS and other such instruments.
Oh, and don't get me started on Commerzbank. I was a long-standing customer who always maintained a 6-figure Euro balance with them. They summarily closed my account last year and left me scrambling to find a new way for my European customers (who comprise roughly half my sales) to pay me.
The OCC tracks some $200 TRILLION in derivatives, and globally the notional value of all derivatives is estimated at over $1 QUADRILLION.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/powells-paradox-curing-inflation
Both are larger amounts than blew up during the GFC
I don't want my times to be that interesting!
I’m reading this move as the authorities in Europe being more concerned with the politically-expedient need to lower interest rates, and they’ll deal with the banking problems later. What do you think?
Within the euro zone consumer price inflation printed at 10% in January, vs 6.4% in the US.
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=G20_PRICES
As bad as inflation has been in the US, it has been generally worse in Europe--and yet the ECB was slow to raise interest rates, the traditional therapy for curing high inflation.
When the Fed began raising rates last March, it was the first major central bank to do so. Very likely in direct consequence the dollar appreciated significantly against other major currencies--and both the euro and the pound flirted with dollar parity, if you recall.
The need to defend the euro as much as anything else forced Lagarde's hand to begin raising rates within the euro zone, but, as the ongoing debacle at Credit Suisse demonstrates, European banks are just as vulnerable to rising interest rates as US banks, potentially more so. While Credit Suiise is the European bank getting the bad press of late, it is hardly the only European bank that is struggling, and for the same reasons US banks are getting hit with liquidity problems: raising rates destroys the value of interest-bearing securities, making them difficult to sell and thus impairing bank liquidity.
And as we are seeing, European bankers are no smarter in this regard than their American cousins. Once interest rate rises became the global norm, portfolios of interest bearing securities were GUARANTEED to lose value. Why buy low yield assets in a high-yield environment? Especially when default risks have not risen significantly (outside of central bank manipulations, a common force pushing up interest rates on securities is rising default risk. If banks think the likelihood the debt will not be repaid is going up, they will demand higher interest as a risk premium).
It will be interesting to see if the ECB rate hike ends up being a case of history rhyming. Just before Lehman collapse--and it was Lehman's UK office that led the downward spiral--the ECB raised interest rates right into the face of a developing European recession. Given the parlous nature of the European economy in the wake of Russia sanctions and Putin temper tantrums, Credit Suisse is hardly the only reason now might not be a good time for the ECB to pursue a 50bps rate hike.
Ultimately, however, if the ECB does nothing and inflation remains high, the European economy is still going to take in the shorts. They're betting the 50bps rate hike will do more to bring down inflation (an economic positive) than it will to bring down European banking (an economic negative). That's fundamentally the same bet Powell and the FOMC are going to be challenged to make next week.
At this point I won't even attempt to predict what the Fed is going to do. This one is a total crapshoot at the moment.
Thanks for another excellent analysis! I keep getting the feeling that the situation is going to become much more volatile in the near future....