You know, if they keep destroying the energy market, this "transition," it won't make a flying EFF what they do.
How did the energy market of the 70-80s compare to today?
Once again, fantastic article.
Impressive how you really have gotten your head wrapped around this, and make these historical comparisons, then put it all down where us non-analyst types can understand.
I'm not entirely sure the energy market is being "destroyed". Certainly the shareholders of ExxonMobil have little reason to complain!
However, if one considers that two of the principal supply shocks which catalyzed the 1970s hyperinflation were the oil shocks of 1973 (OPEC's temper tantrum over Western support for Israel) and 1978 (Iran's Islamic Revolution), the energy markets of today do carry more than a few parallels to the 1970s.
An interesting historical footnote to that parallel: by the mid 1980s there was a worldwide glut of oil and the markets slumped for years afterwards.
I tend to be rather skeptical of the "pent up demand" thesis.
By its very nature, demand is an immediate phenomenon. Where there is the means to buy, buying generally happens today, not tomorrow. For savings to occur, there has to be systemic incentive to postpone purchasing--however, if incentive is involved, saving is itself another form of demand.
"with virtually nothing to show for it"
You know, if they keep destroying the energy market, this "transition," it won't make a flying EFF what they do.
How did the energy market of the 70-80s compare to today?
Once again, fantastic article.
Impressive how you really have gotten your head wrapped around this, and make these historical comparisons, then put it all down where us non-analyst types can understand.
Thanks for your kind words.
I'm not entirely sure the energy market is being "destroyed". Certainly the shareholders of ExxonMobil have little reason to complain!
However, if one considers that two of the principal supply shocks which catalyzed the 1970s hyperinflation were the oil shocks of 1973 (OPEC's temper tantrum over Western support for Israel) and 1978 (Iran's Islamic Revolution), the energy markets of today do carry more than a few parallels to the 1970s.
An interesting historical footnote to that parallel: by the mid 1980s there was a worldwide glut of oil and the markets slumped for years afterwards.
One thing to consider, assuming we survive this, will be the same thing we saw after Clinton/Bush/Obama.
Pent up demand will be off the charts.
I don't know if many ever properly recognized this 'factor' prior to the election of Donald Trump. It doesn't seem to get much 'press.'
Any thoughts?
I tend to be rather skeptical of the "pent up demand" thesis.
By its very nature, demand is an immediate phenomenon. Where there is the means to buy, buying generally happens today, not tomorrow. For savings to occur, there has to be systemic incentive to postpone purchasing--however, if incentive is involved, saving is itself another form of demand.