The "low" unemployment rate is in many respect an artifact of the way unemployment is calculated. Workers not actively looking for work are deemed not to be part of the labor force.
The cohort of workers not in the labor force increased by some 9-10 million during the Pandemic Panic Recession, and roughly 4.5 million of that number are still sidelined. In fact, there has been little movement overall in the number of workers not in the labor force during Dementia Joe's Reign of Error. Unemployment has fallen, but there has been minimal movement among those not in the labor force.
For a variety of reasons, the presumed "shortage" of workers is not pulling these workers back into the labor force. Where are the workers? On the sidelines.
Here’s something else that may be a leading-edge clue: the Wall Street Journal had a headline last week saying people are canceling their streaming services. Think about it - when your finances get pinched, you start eliminating discretionary purchases, right? Housing costs are up and food costs are up. Utilities, insurance premiums, education expenses, and the majority of all essential purchases have become more expensive. You review your budget, and downsize the streaming subscriptions from four to two. Could there be other reasons to cancel, such as annoyingly Woke content? Certainly. So I’m watching the headlines on clothing sales, Christmas spending, store closings, and so on. There have already been articles about declines in travel.
There’s just no way that the economy is as rosy as a Biden wants us to believe (until after the election)!
What the corporate media frequently overlooks is that while inflation may be "tamed" in that prices are no longer rising at the pace they once were, outside of energy and durable goods prices are not coming down. Given that wages have not kept pace with that inflation that means people are still left with effectively smaller paychecks.
The streaming service woes are an important reminder that service price inflation has not abated all that much. Services in general are continuing to show elevated levels of inflation that stands quite at odds with the current narratives on inflation coming down (service price inflation has come down, but not nearly as much as either headline or core inflation per the PCE Price Index).
Aggregate service price inflation since the end of the Pandemic Panic Recession has outpaced both headline inflation per the PCE Price Index and core inflation (less food and energy).
Market forces being what they are, unless there are a lot more streaming service cancellations and other curtailments of service sector sales, that component of inflation is going to remain elevated for the near term at least.
One neighbor was laid off from a trade association and another neighbor laid off at a headhunter/recruiting firm in November. My husband's company is using more and more independent contractors/providers from Peru and India. Just a couple corroborating factoids from my block.
My mostly-retired husband still works a little part-time job at an auto-parts shop. For the past five or six weeks, he has been coming home early because store traffic is down and there is nothing for him to do. Sure, just another single anecdote - but they add up, don’t they?
Where are all the workers? Twice now we've been to our local Cracker Barrel and they don't have enough servers. They weren't busy either.
That's a good question.
The "low" unemployment rate is in many respect an artifact of the way unemployment is calculated. Workers not actively looking for work are deemed not to be part of the labor force.
The cohort of workers not in the labor force increased by some 9-10 million during the Pandemic Panic Recession, and roughly 4.5 million of that number are still sidelined. In fact, there has been little movement overall in the number of workers not in the labor force during Dementia Joe's Reign of Error. Unemployment has fallen, but there has been minimal movement among those not in the labor force.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dGqS
For a variety of reasons, the presumed "shortage" of workers is not pulling these workers back into the labor force. Where are the workers? On the sidelines.
Here’s something else that may be a leading-edge clue: the Wall Street Journal had a headline last week saying people are canceling their streaming services. Think about it - when your finances get pinched, you start eliminating discretionary purchases, right? Housing costs are up and food costs are up. Utilities, insurance premiums, education expenses, and the majority of all essential purchases have become more expensive. You review your budget, and downsize the streaming subscriptions from four to two. Could there be other reasons to cancel, such as annoyingly Woke content? Certainly. So I’m watching the headlines on clothing sales, Christmas spending, store closings, and so on. There have already been articles about declines in travel.
There’s just no way that the economy is as rosy as a Biden wants us to believe (until after the election)!
What the corporate media frequently overlooks is that while inflation may be "tamed" in that prices are no longer rising at the pace they once were, outside of energy and durable goods prices are not coming down. Given that wages have not kept pace with that inflation that means people are still left with effectively smaller paychecks.
The streaming service woes are an important reminder that service price inflation has not abated all that much. Services in general are continuing to show elevated levels of inflation that stands quite at odds with the current narratives on inflation coming down (service price inflation has come down, but not nearly as much as either headline or core inflation per the PCE Price Index).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dFPY
Aggregate service price inflation since the end of the Pandemic Panic Recession has outpaced both headline inflation per the PCE Price Index and core inflation (less food and energy).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dFQ8
Market forces being what they are, unless there are a lot more streaming service cancellations and other curtailments of service sector sales, that component of inflation is going to remain elevated for the near term at least.
One neighbor was laid off from a trade association and another neighbor laid off at a headhunter/recruiting firm in November. My husband's company is using more and more independent contractors/providers from Peru and India. Just a couple corroborating factoids from my block.
My mostly-retired husband still works a little part-time job at an auto-parts shop. For the past five or six weeks, he has been coming home early because store traffic is down and there is nothing for him to do. Sure, just another single anecdote - but they add up, don’t they?