I know my business is just an anecdote, not data, but we're definitely running somewhat slower than we had been. FWIW, about half my revenue comes from exports (mostly to Europe) and those customers a whining about the exchange rate because my prices are in Dollars. They'd like me to cut prices or give them discounts. I so wanna ask them, "Hey, did you offer to pay more back when one Euro bought $1.50?"
I still have to do a complete parsing of the BEA data, but from what I have read thus far exports are the driving force behind the expansion.
It would not surprise me to discover that all this economic "growth" comes from selling arms to Ukraine (after giving them the money to make the purchase).
That would be a double irony: Putin's war as economic stimulus to the US, and economic stimulus as a rationale for continuing to drag out the war of attrition, Ukrainian and Russian lives be damned.
IT management consultant and author Bob Lewis' First Law of Metrics says "You get what you measure." The corollary to this law is "What you mis-measure, you mis-manage."
Very likely we are seeing (yet another) glaring deficiency in the economic data being collected.
You are too polite. I've been on the inside and have personally witnessed how government construction data was measured. Lying liars is a nice term, grifting scamartists might be more accurate. Always remember "cui bono", and, in this case, it is the same people who collect the data.
It's not a question of etiquette, but of simplicity. Sound logical analysis is grounded in the principle of parsimony, AKA "Occam's Razor"--the most quotable version comes from none other than Albert Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible but no simpler."
While it is quite possible that the data is deliberately fudged and mis-stated, absent specific evidences (as opposed to suspicions, no matter how well grounded in prior experience) indicating that has happened, the prudent "best guess" on the how of this is data deficiency. That's the interpretation that requires the fewest layered on assumptions in order for it to hold together.
I know my business is just an anecdote, not data, but we're definitely running somewhat slower than we had been. FWIW, about half my revenue comes from exports (mostly to Europe) and those customers a whining about the exchange rate because my prices are in Dollars. They'd like me to cut prices or give them discounts. I so wanna ask them, "Hey, did you offer to pay more back when one Euro bought $1.50?"
I still have to do a complete parsing of the BEA data, but from what I have read thus far exports are the driving force behind the expansion.
It would not surprise me to discover that all this economic "growth" comes from selling arms to Ukraine (after giving them the money to make the purchase).
That would be a double irony: Putin's war as economic stimulus to the US, and economic stimulus as a rationale for continuing to drag out the war of attrition, Ukrainian and Russian lives be damned.
Makes me wonder what comes up in November that could benefit from bs data???
I suspect it's more of a data anomaly.
IT management consultant and author Bob Lewis' First Law of Metrics says "You get what you measure." The corollary to this law is "What you mis-measure, you mis-manage."
Very likely we are seeing (yet another) glaring deficiency in the economic data being collected.
You are too polite. I've been on the inside and have personally witnessed how government construction data was measured. Lying liars is a nice term, grifting scamartists might be more accurate. Always remember "cui bono", and, in this case, it is the same people who collect the data.
It's not a question of etiquette, but of simplicity. Sound logical analysis is grounded in the principle of parsimony, AKA "Occam's Razor"--the most quotable version comes from none other than Albert Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible but no simpler."
While it is quite possible that the data is deliberately fudged and mis-stated, absent specific evidences (as opposed to suspicions, no matter how well grounded in prior experience) indicating that has happened, the prudent "best guess" on the how of this is data deficiency. That's the interpretation that requires the fewest layered on assumptions in order for it to hold together.