6 Comments

Employment numbers are definitely not a leading indicator when it comes to economic downturns.

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They are always a trailing indicator, with little predictive value for what lies ahead.

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In free governments the rulers are the servants, and the people their superiors and sovereigns.

— Benjamin Franklin

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We're in the 'just go up there and make shit up' stage of the collapse.

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Peter, what is going on with India, as the stocks there are also dropping like everywhere else.

Is the business sector growth there real, or some temporary phenomenon related to an even bigger game like 'digital money' as I know they have had problems (starvation!!) with the centrally controlled food distribution in many regions.

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There are too many complexities for a short answer.

Part of it is almost certainly spillover effect from China's Zero COVID Policy. Even before the pandemic India was taking manufacturing jobs away from China, so there is an element of the Indian economy that is almost surely benefiting from the pandemic.

At the same time, their industry is facing the same logistics bottlenecks as everyone else. So there's an element of things which is stimulative to Indian business even as their stock markets are under water.

But this is where contagion comes into play: even with stimulutive factors to pump up the economy locally, supply chain disruptions from China and even the Russo-Ukrainian War can still bring the Indian economy down.

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