How much faith should we place in the political polls showing this or that candidate in the lead in any given election?
As a general rule, somewhere between “none” and “not much.” Polls are not votes, and in any election the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day when voters step into the voting booth and cast their ballot.
However, polling data itself can offer an interesting backdrop for evaluating what candidates do, and what to make of the crowds attending their rallies and other events. Given that this is a Presidential election cycle, the details under the hood of any poll offer up some interesting commentaries on the state of the election, the mindset of the electorate, and the mood of the country.
It’s a worthwhile exercise, therefore, to do a deep dive on one of these polls—AtlasIntel’s Poll on the US Presidential Election—to see what nuggets of insight might be lurking within. As I am forever asking, what does the data say?
Atlas Inel warrants closer scrutiny, as Atlas was the most accurate polling organization in the 2020 Presidential election cycle. AtlasIntel outdid many of the mainstays of political polling, such as Quinnipiac, CNN, Morning Consult, and Emerson College.
We should not take that accomplishment to mean their 2024 poll results are the indisputable gauge of what will be in the election, but it does allow us to invest a bit more trust in their data.
We should also note an additional caveat that polls which survey the nation as a whole are not the most accurate snapshot of a Presidential Election. As the Supreme Court reaffirmed in the 2020 Chiafolo ruling, Presidential elections are a quintessentially state matter, and we should be cautious about imputing the results of a national survey onto the individual states and their voters.
That being said, let us take a closer look at the gory details of the Atlas poll. While the poll itself concludes that Donald Trump is strongly in the lead nationwide, within the polling data itself we can see some of the reasons why Donald Trump is winning.
The first thing we have to observe about the poll is that, despite Atlas having been the most accurate the last time around, we should be wary of a potential Democrat/left-leaning bias. When we look at the breakdown for the polls methodology, we find the sample population almost evenly split among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
While this notionally might appear indicative of ideological balance, we must be mindful that, according to Gallup—another mainstay of political and public opinion polling—the largest contingent of voters is Independents, and, as of the most recent Gallup party affiliation survey, more voters identify as Republican than Democrat by approximately 3 percentage points.
Most importantly, this party affiliation edge enjoyed by the Republicans has been a recurring theme throughout the year.
Accordingly, the Atlas poll may have actually oversampled Democrats relative to their proportion in the population, and the results may be skewed towards Kamala Harris as a result. This is not to accuse AtlasIntel of anything nefarious, but we are well advised to recognized that the poll results are quite likely a “best case” scenario for Democrats. The actual voter distribution on the various issues could easily tilt significantly towards Donald Trump.Unsurprisingly, the poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris. Somewhat surprisingly, the presence of third party candidates appears to be helping Donald Trump. In a head-to-head matchup, Donald Trump bests Kamala Harris by about 2 percentage points. However, when candidates such as Jill Stein and Cornell West are factored in, Trump’s polling margin increases to around 3 percentage points.
This third party “spoiler” dynamic makes Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s decision earlier in the summer to exit the race and endorse Donald Trump particularly significant. By exiting the race, Kennedy may have strengthened Donald Trump’s candidacy where it counts.When we look at the various demographic breakdowns of the support for each candidate, we see the first indication of why Kamala Harris is lagging behind Donald Trump: despite being the heir apparent to Joe Biden, a significant slice–9.9%--of Biden’s 2020 support is now going to Donald Trump.
Another trouble spot for Kamala Harris is that she appears to have alienated a majority of Independent voters. Independent voters are the largest voting demographic. That more than half of that demographic is backing Donald Trump is not a good sign for her!
If Kamala Harris hoped to be an agent of change, that, too, is very much in doubt, based on this poll’s data.The vast bulk of her supporters approve of the job Joe Biden has done as President,, even though the majority of voters absolutely do not.
Consequently, Kamala Harris supporters are, for the most part, Joe Biden supporters.
Also troubling for Kamala Harris is that Donald Trump is perceived as stronger or having the better ideas on all the identified issues in this election except healthcare, reproductive rights, and the environment.
This is not good news for Kamala Harris, because there are four issues ahead of those in the minds of most voters, and voters trust Donald Trump more on all of them.
Even worse news for Kamala Harris is that she has a lower favorable assessment by voters than Donald Trump, and a higher unfavorable assessment. As much as corporate media wants to portray Donald Trump as unliked and unlikable, Kamala Harris has been found by AtlasIntel to be even more unliked and unlikable.
As voters identify economic issues as among the most important issues of the election, we should also consider how economic self-assessment factors into whether or not one supports Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Overall, voters are not feeling good about the economy. Whether considering the jobs market, individual situations, or the economy as a whole, only a third of poll respondents felt good about the economy.
This economic pessimism is apparently significant, because the pessimists are going for Donald Trump, according to AtlasIntel. Kamala Harris is drawing her support primarily from that contingent of voters with good things to say about the economy—which this poll presents as being the smallest contingent. Donald Trump is drawing his support from the largest such contingent—which gives him a clear advantage
It is perhaps no coincidence that Kamala Harris’ supporters are all mainly higher income-earners. Working-class individuals and lower income types are choosing Donald Trump. Given that the median income in 2023 was $80,610, that Kamala Harris’ support is primarily among voters earning more than $100,000 means by definition her base is the smallest portion of the electorate, while Donald Trump’s base is the largest.
In an interesting corollorary to the economic optimism among Kamala Harris’ supporters, they also appear to have the most optimistic view of Executive Branch departments and agencies, and the most pessimistic view of both the Supreme Court and the Congress.
Donald Trump’s supporters, on the other hand, take the dimmest view of Executive Branch agencies, while also being fairly pessimistic about Congress but overall optimistic about the Supreme Court.
There is a palpable irony in Kamala Harris calling Donald Trump a “threat to democracy” when her own supporters are displaying considerably greater authoritarian leanings.
It would be feckless in the extreme, not to mention outrageously naive, to take this one single poll as the authoritative breakdown of voter demographics for both Donald Trump’s voters and Kamala Harris’. It would be equally feckless to presume this poll to be supremely accurate without question. AtlasIntel did well in the last Presidential election, and if their methodology maintains its rigor we are not out of bounds in giving a measure of credibility to the poll, but we absolutely must retain significant skepticism—polls can be wrong.
However, to the extent the Atlas poll is an accurate snapshot of the electorate, its internals strongly suggest that Kamala Harris has aimed well wide of the mark in terms of her campaign themes and messaging.
Looking at this poll’s data, the clear conclusion to be made is that Kamala Harris’ is appealing to a clear minority of the electorate. She’s not succeeding in wooing independent voters, and she’s not succeeding in wooing crossover Republicans.
She’s also failed to differentiate herself from Joe Biden. The bulk of her support comes from people who were supporting Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race. Given her campaign theme of “turn the page”, we can only conclude that her efforts to present herself as an agent of change are failing miserably. Whatever else she is, her supporters are not looking to her because she’s an agent of change.
Donald Trump is, on the other hand, succeeding in all of these areas. He’s winning among independents, he’s winning in the largest economic cohorts, and he’s winning disenchanted and disaffected former Biden supporters.
Does this mean that Kamala Harris is certain to lose, and that Donald Trump is certain to win? No. As I stated at the outset, polls do not lend themselves to that measure of certainty.
It does mean that, going by the poll data, Kamala Harris’ campaign is not doing well. It lends credibility to the narratives swirling around in both corporate and alternative media that her campaign staff is concerned, and even in a state of panic. Campaign staff see these public polls as well as their own internal polling data. If the internal polling data reflects public polls such as AtlasIntel, her staffers have good reason to be concerned.
The AtlasIntel polling internals also align with what the betting markets are showing—namely, that Donald Trump is an overwhelming favorite at this juncture.
The AtlasIntel polling internals also align with other polls in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregates, which show Donald Trump leading in each and every one of this year’s top “battleground” states.
If AtlasIntel has taken an accurate snapshot of the American electorate in 2024, unless something completely transformative occurs in these few remaining days until Election Day, Kamala Harris is not on a trajectory to win the Presidency.
AtlasIntel gives some good empirical reasons to hope that, come next January, we will see President Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office once more.
This is my take on a breakdown of the major polling data in this Presidential election cycle. If you’ve enjoyed this presentation, please share it with others. If you find these presentations valuable please also consider either making a one-time donation or signing up for a paid subscription to All Facts Matter. Your support is what makes this work possible.
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