I agree, it’s impossible to take ANY info coming out of China at face value - they always have an agenda they’re pushing. But here’s a few things that are always true:
- People want to feel that they’re FREE. So, as China’s standard of living improves, their citizens will inevitably take the material comforts for granted, and fuss more and more for personal freedoms.
- The time-honored way for a Ruler to unite a grumbling populace is to direct everyone’s attention to an external foe - that would be US, folks.
- After a Ruler has invested a ton of money and effort into building big projects, he wants to get a return on his investment, right? I’ve read that China has built huge infrastructure projects - shipping ports, airports, power plants, etc. - in 147 countries now, as part of their Belt and Road initiative. Sounds like gearing up for war to me. China is going to want to get a lot of use out of these projects...
China is in no shape to fight a global war--and any war they fight will be global.
BRI ports notwithstanding, China does not have a blue water navy and will not have a blue water navy before about 2030 at the earliest.
The PLA has not fought an actual war since they got spanked by Vietnamese reservists in 1980--which means no one in the PLA from the top general on down has any experience in combat.
The PLA Navy has NEVER mounted an amphibious operation in wartime.
Russia's ESPO pipeline can supply at most around 1 million barrels per day of crude. Tankers from Kozmino and Vladivostok can provide optimistically between 1 and 1.6 million BPD of crude.
That leaves China's war machine short of fuel in a matter of months. Meanwhile the US and Indian navies can blockade the sea lanes into the South China sea and starve China of needed oil.
China's hypersonic missiles might be effective at area denial but they are a defensive weapon only, which nullifies their value outside the first island chain.
Very reassuring! War with China would be a complete disaster for everyone, so I certainly hope you’re right. I’d love to see the top dogs in China completely undone by a grassroots democracy movement - but I’m in the dark as to whether that’s feasible. I also find it reassuring that China has financial reasons to NOT wage war on us - such as, we are their biggest customer, they absolutely need our markets, and they hold so much US debt.
Please keep us informed about new developments regarding the China mystery. Why ARE they sinking so much money into the Belt and Road initiative? Can we trust that there is no military aspect to this? And how are the top dogs realistically going to hold on to power indefinitely?
I don’t know if you are old enough to have lived through the Cold War. Everyone in the West fretted for decades that the Soviet Union was going to ‘bury us’ (as Khrushchev famously promised) - and then, the USSR just rotted from within. I’m thinking there may be some variation on this in China someday, but we get so little reliable information! I’d appreciate hearing from you any reliable new warnings and signals you encounter....
I’ve read your Substack for a few weeks now, and have been impressed by your insights and analysis. You also have information that I haven’t heard elsewhere (for example, I didn’t know that China’s missiles were defensive only). You give us an informed viewpoint that is different from much of the mainstream press, and that is valuable! Plus, you answer questions and interact with us - love it! I suspect you’re going to be proven right on a number of issues over time. So I have just splurged on my budget and upgraded to a PAID subscription. Keep it coming!
I agree, it’s impossible to take ANY info coming out of China at face value - they always have an agenda they’re pushing. But here’s a few things that are always true:
- People want to feel that they’re FREE. So, as China’s standard of living improves, their citizens will inevitably take the material comforts for granted, and fuss more and more for personal freedoms.
- The time-honored way for a Ruler to unite a grumbling populace is to direct everyone’s attention to an external foe - that would be US, folks.
- After a Ruler has invested a ton of money and effort into building big projects, he wants to get a return on his investment, right? I’ve read that China has built huge infrastructure projects - shipping ports, airports, power plants, etc. - in 147 countries now, as part of their Belt and Road initiative. Sounds like gearing up for war to me. China is going to want to get a lot of use out of these projects...
We are in for ‘interesting times’!
China is in no shape to fight a global war--and any war they fight will be global.
BRI ports notwithstanding, China does not have a blue water navy and will not have a blue water navy before about 2030 at the earliest.
The PLA has not fought an actual war since they got spanked by Vietnamese reservists in 1980--which means no one in the PLA from the top general on down has any experience in combat.
The PLA Navy has NEVER mounted an amphibious operation in wartime.
Russia's ESPO pipeline can supply at most around 1 million barrels per day of crude. Tankers from Kozmino and Vladivostok can provide optimistically between 1 and 1.6 million BPD of crude.
That leaves China's war machine short of fuel in a matter of months. Meanwhile the US and Indian navies can blockade the sea lanes into the South China sea and starve China of needed oil.
China's hypersonic missiles might be effective at area denial but they are a defensive weapon only, which nullifies their value outside the first island chain.
All of which amounts to a war China cannot win.
Very reassuring! War with China would be a complete disaster for everyone, so I certainly hope you’re right. I’d love to see the top dogs in China completely undone by a grassroots democracy movement - but I’m in the dark as to whether that’s feasible. I also find it reassuring that China has financial reasons to NOT wage war on us - such as, we are their biggest customer, they absolutely need our markets, and they hold so much US debt.
Please keep us informed about new developments regarding the China mystery. Why ARE they sinking so much money into the Belt and Road initiative? Can we trust that there is no military aspect to this? And how are the top dogs realistically going to hold on to power indefinitely?
I don’t know if you are old enough to have lived through the Cold War. Everyone in the West fretted for decades that the Soviet Union was going to ‘bury us’ (as Khrushchev famously promised) - and then, the USSR just rotted from within. I’m thinking there may be some variation on this in China someday, but we get so little reliable information! I’d appreciate hearing from you any reliable new warnings and signals you encounter....
Just keep reading. There's a reason I have a section "China Matters" 😉
I’ve read your Substack for a few weeks now, and have been impressed by your insights and analysis. You also have information that I haven’t heard elsewhere (for example, I didn’t know that China’s missiles were defensive only). You give us an informed viewpoint that is different from much of the mainstream press, and that is valuable! Plus, you answer questions and interact with us - love it! I suspect you’re going to be proven right on a number of issues over time. So I have just splurged on my budget and upgraded to a PAID subscription. Keep it coming!
Thank you very much for your kind words and your support!
The ever-enhancing mercurial and mysterious China.
When you light the afterburners, you run out of fuel rather quickly. ;)
Touche!