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I really appreciate solid data like this, Peter. Decades ago I could find it in the MSM, but now they seem to only push propaganda that supports a narrative. You still have objectivity and integrity. Thank you.

About two weeks before the Election I saw a headline proclaiming that Trump’s tariffs would lead to higher inflation. This was during the campaign-tactic era of ramping up fear porn against “Hitler” Trump, so I didn’t even bother to read the article. However, it does pose the question: do you see anything in Trump’s proposed policies that is likely to significantly affect inflation rates? For example, he had promised to immediately end the wars, so that would dramatically cut defense spending - but he has also spoke of needing to strengthen our defenses (i.e. replenish our diminished armament). Taking all of his proposed increases in spending, such as that amount necessary secure our borders, minus proposed cuts in government employment, from eliminating agencies, and what is likely to be the net effect ? Anything in particular that would affect inflation?

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I'll have more to say about inflation after tomorrow's CPI report. This article is really meant to lay a foundation for that discussion.

What we should understand is that tariffs have been making a return to political popularity around the world. Europe is putting up tariffs and trade barriers with China, and many of them are more restrictive than those in the US. China is doing what it can to retaliate.

The maritime trading order is shifting away from the quasi-cooperative globalist structure that has prevailed for the past several decades, and shifting back towards a more nationalistic model. We're not returning to true 19th century Great Power Competition just yet--mainly because the competition for colonial domination of the globe is not being done openly--but the world is definitely shifting in that direction.

That shift is going to have a much larger impact on prices in every country than any one set of tariffs, and over a much longer span of time.

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We’re just over two months from his inauguration and about three months from his economic policies starting to have impact.

Everything about Trump’s policies right now is just theorizing. A lot depends on what unfolds between now and Inauguration Day—and the world is not standing still.

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