You were the first analyst I know of to spot China heading into deflation, so kudos, Peter!
And wasn’t “recovery is just around the corner!” the rallying cry of American politicians in 1933? Ha!
Two questions and a request:
One graph shows three periods of deflation in factory gate prices. Do you have any reliable information (I.e. not Chinese propaganda) to explain how exactly the late-2016 situation got out of deflation? I’m looking for tactics that China might successfully employ again.
Also, if the Hong Kong stock market plunges upon reopening, and stays down, how would you expect that to affect the deflationary trend? Drastically increase the rate of decline?
The request: an interesting column you could write, if you’re interested, would be to contrast Japan’s deflationary periods with China’s. Now, I realize they are much different economies, so it would indeed be comparing apples with oranges. Still, it might give clues of trends to come. After Japan’s CPI had four straight months of decline, what happened in the fifth, and sixth, and one year later? After Japan’s PPC had sixteen straight months of decline, how did it trend afterward?
This may be of interest to you:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/why-china-cant-solve-its-problems-of-today-5586693?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
You were the first analyst I know of to spot China heading into deflation, so kudos, Peter!
And wasn’t “recovery is just around the corner!” the rallying cry of American politicians in 1933? Ha!
Two questions and a request:
One graph shows three periods of deflation in factory gate prices. Do you have any reliable information (I.e. not Chinese propaganda) to explain how exactly the late-2016 situation got out of deflation? I’m looking for tactics that China might successfully employ again.
Also, if the Hong Kong stock market plunges upon reopening, and stays down, how would you expect that to affect the deflationary trend? Drastically increase the rate of decline?
The request: an interesting column you could write, if you’re interested, would be to contrast Japan’s deflationary periods with China’s. Now, I realize they are much different economies, so it would indeed be comparing apples with oranges. Still, it might give clues of trends to come. After Japan’s CPI had four straight months of decline, what happened in the fifth, and sixth, and one year later? After Japan’s PPC had sixteen straight months of decline, how did it trend afterward?
Thank you, Peter!