You’ve got the data, Mr. Kust - irrefutable stuff!
Interestingly enough, others are starting to predict more stagflation and hard times, but you saw it all first. Seems like every day I see a headline in the Wall St Journal proving you right. And if you go to Peter Navarro’s latest Substack post, he is also predicting more stagflation.
(I’m not actually all that wild about Trump, but I read Navarro’s Substack to counter the daily disinformation that the MSM spouts. We have to piece it together by ourselves, right?)
On one level it's becoming quite a fascinating scenario economically (well, it would be if it were not for all the privation and economic suffering being inflicted on regular working folk!).
Typically, "stagflation" is understood to be a confluence of high inflation and high unemployment.
We have somewhat high inflation and arguably "low" unemployment (setting aside for the moment the statistical liberties taken especially with the unemployment metric, which merely dumps workers who've been out of work too long as being not in the labor force). This is how the economy comes to be characterized as "too hot"--the metrics are usually associated with rapid unbalanced economic growth.
However, what may be unfolding--and the oil market data appears to be leading in this direction--is where we have deflation in some economic sectors and inflation in others, which arguably leads to a different understanding of stagflation than what the term historically describes.
This will be interesting! A new mashup to perplex economists and policy wonks. I still remember, during the stagflation of the 1970s,how all of my economics professors were stumped, and endlessly debating how to fix the new phenomenon of stagflation. (Hey, they were Keynesians.) I’ll bet *you* will come up with some solutions, and wouldn’t it be gratifying if you could get your ideas heard by the influential people? Maybe Navarro could be a pipeline for your ideas, since you’re both on Substack. If he hasn’t read your posts before now, I’ll bet he would be impressed by your reliably excellent analysis!
I remember that stagflation as well--although in the 1970s I was still young enough that my economic grasp of "stagflation" was limited to "crap, we're having liver again for dinner tonight"!
I would probably set your economic professors' hair on fire with my ideas, as they chiefly revolve around telling the Fed "don't just do something, stand there!"
They've done enough damage as it is, I'm down with them doing absolutely nothing for a change. If the government stops acting the markets are freed to act.
It would be awesome if Navarro or some other "name" took an interest in my Substack. (Fingers crossed!)
There must be some mutual acquaintance on Substack who could direct Navarro’s attention to you, and I really think he’d be impressed by your thinking. You are also an excellent writer, and in this era of tweets and limited vocabulary, that’s a rare and valuable thing. (I’m gradually making way through all six volumes of Winston Churchill’s “The Second World War”, so I am daily reminded of how eloquently statesmen wrote decide as ago - a lost art!) Navarro is, quite frankly, not on top of the Washington pile these days, and could use some fresh and accurate analysts to help his star rise...
You’ve got the data, Mr. Kust - irrefutable stuff!
Interestingly enough, others are starting to predict more stagflation and hard times, but you saw it all first. Seems like every day I see a headline in the Wall St Journal proving you right. And if you go to Peter Navarro’s latest Substack post, he is also predicting more stagflation.
(I’m not actually all that wild about Trump, but I read Navarro’s Substack to counter the daily disinformation that the MSM spouts. We have to piece it together by ourselves, right?)
On one level it's becoming quite a fascinating scenario economically (well, it would be if it were not for all the privation and economic suffering being inflicted on regular working folk!).
Typically, "stagflation" is understood to be a confluence of high inflation and high unemployment.
We have somewhat high inflation and arguably "low" unemployment (setting aside for the moment the statistical liberties taken especially with the unemployment metric, which merely dumps workers who've been out of work too long as being not in the labor force). This is how the economy comes to be characterized as "too hot"--the metrics are usually associated with rapid unbalanced economic growth.
However, what may be unfolding--and the oil market data appears to be leading in this direction--is where we have deflation in some economic sectors and inflation in others, which arguably leads to a different understanding of stagflation than what the term historically describes.
This will be interesting! A new mashup to perplex economists and policy wonks. I still remember, during the stagflation of the 1970s,how all of my economics professors were stumped, and endlessly debating how to fix the new phenomenon of stagflation. (Hey, they were Keynesians.) I’ll bet *you* will come up with some solutions, and wouldn’t it be gratifying if you could get your ideas heard by the influential people? Maybe Navarro could be a pipeline for your ideas, since you’re both on Substack. If he hasn’t read your posts before now, I’ll bet he would be impressed by your reliably excellent analysis!
I remember that stagflation as well--although in the 1970s I was still young enough that my economic grasp of "stagflation" was limited to "crap, we're having liver again for dinner tonight"!
I would probably set your economic professors' hair on fire with my ideas, as they chiefly revolve around telling the Fed "don't just do something, stand there!"
They've done enough damage as it is, I'm down with them doing absolutely nothing for a change. If the government stops acting the markets are freed to act.
It would be awesome if Navarro or some other "name" took an interest in my Substack. (Fingers crossed!)
There must be some mutual acquaintance on Substack who could direct Navarro’s attention to you, and I really think he’d be impressed by your thinking. You are also an excellent writer, and in this era of tweets and limited vocabulary, that’s a rare and valuable thing. (I’m gradually making way through all six volumes of Winston Churchill’s “The Second World War”, so I am daily reminded of how eloquently statesmen wrote decide as ago - a lost art!) Navarro is, quite frankly, not on top of the Washington pile these days, and could use some fresh and accurate analysts to help his star rise...