You are a treasure, Peter. Your superb analytical skills consistently give us the updated, accurate big picture. I so appreciate it!
One of the best campaign talking points a candidate can give is, “Prices have come down under our administration!” We can count on Trump-endorsed candidates to hype this. My question is, does the opposition have a valid argument that prices have come down regardless of Trump’s policies?
"does the opposition have a valid argument that prices have come down regardless of Trump’s policies?"
Not really. Year on year inflation rates for core prices largely stopped declining on the PCEPI back in 2024. For core prices on the CPI year on year inflation rates stalled in 2024, ratcheted down in a bit right after Trump took office, and have been trending down since late 2025.
Where President Trump is somewhat vulnerable is, of course, the rise in consumer price inflation since March--although that is almost entirely within energy prices and not spread across--and the rise in core price inflation year on year in the PCEPI since late last year.
The core PCEPI rise is not war-related because its too far in advance of Operation Epic Fury. Democrats will argue its tariff-related but the data is sketchy on that. Tariffs probably do play a role but it is not the sole cause.
If President Trump can keep the price of oil in check between now and the mid-terms making inflation a campign topic for Democrats looks to be a rather heavy lieft--and none of their main mouthpieces have the chops to press that case in current economic conditions.
You are a treasure, Peter. Your superb analytical skills consistently give us the updated, accurate big picture. I so appreciate it!
One of the best campaign talking points a candidate can give is, “Prices have come down under our administration!” We can count on Trump-endorsed candidates to hype this. My question is, does the opposition have a valid argument that prices have come down regardless of Trump’s policies?
"does the opposition have a valid argument that prices have come down regardless of Trump’s policies?"
Not really. Year on year inflation rates for core prices largely stopped declining on the PCEPI back in 2024. For core prices on the CPI year on year inflation rates stalled in 2024, ratcheted down in a bit right after Trump took office, and have been trending down since late 2025.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X5FC
Where President Trump is somewhat vulnerable is, of course, the rise in consumer price inflation since March--although that is almost entirely within energy prices and not spread across--and the rise in core price inflation year on year in the PCEPI since late last year.
The core PCEPI rise is not war-related because its too far in advance of Operation Epic Fury. Democrats will argue its tariff-related but the data is sketchy on that. Tariffs probably do play a role but it is not the sole cause.
(For new readers, I've discussed Trump's Liberation Day tariffs and their probable impacts on inflation a few times: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-warnings-from-ppi-but-its)
If President Trump can keep the price of oil in check between now and the mid-terms making inflation a campign topic for Democrats looks to be a rather heavy lieft--and none of their main mouthpieces have the chops to press that case in current economic conditions.
None of their main mouthpieces have anywhere near your intelligence, Magnificent Man!
“If you can do it, it ain’t braggin’.” (Dizzy Dean)