Peter, when agencies such as the IEA issue their forecasts, do they base them on the ‘official’ growth forecasts given by countries, or do the mineral economists involved use their own judgement on what the real-world growth will be? I’m specifically thinking of China here. What the CCP announces to the world regarding China’s expected growth and what we are likely to see in China this year may end up being drastically different. The experts at the IEA and OPEC surely must know this (to some degree), and I’m wondering if they use some sort of ‘bullfeathers weighting factor’ to get figures closer to economic reality.
Peter, when agencies such as the IEA issue their forecasts, do they base them on the ‘official’ growth forecasts given by countries, or do the mineral economists involved use their own judgement on what the real-world growth will be? I’m specifically thinking of China here. What the CCP announces to the world regarding China’s expected growth and what we are likely to see in China this year may end up being drastically different. The experts at the IEA and OPEC surely must know this (to some degree), and I’m wondering if they use some sort of ‘bullfeathers weighting factor’ to get figures closer to economic reality.