I don't see the cartel collapsing, simply because being outside the cartel offers no real advantage to the Gulf States. Peripheral members might fall away as their own political instabilities change their economic calculus, but the regimes which are stable have little reason to abandon the status quo.
If much of the world enters a long deflationary era, how would you expect that to affect OPEC? Do you see the cartel completely falling apart?
I don't see the cartel collapsing, simply because being outside the cartel offers no real advantage to the Gulf States. Peripheral members might fall away as their own political instabilities change their economic calculus, but the regimes which are stable have little reason to abandon the status quo.