My personal take is that China's geography is all wrong for using war as a means of economic stimulus.
China has already expanded to her natural borders. To the south the jungles of Southeast Asia are pretty impenatrable, to the West there is the Himalayan Mountain range and the Gobi desert. To the north there is the Siberian steppe--a va…
My personal take is that China's geography is all wrong for using war as a means of economic stimulus.
China has already expanded to her natural borders. To the south the jungles of Southeast Asia are pretty impenatrable, to the West there is the Himalayan Mountain range and the Gobi desert. To the north there is the Siberian steppe--a vast area of little infrastructure and fewer people. To the east is the Pacific Ocean.
Unlike Germany in the 1930s, or Russia today, there are no territories close at hand which are easily invaded for the purposes of exploiting their resources. Moreover, the one territory China has expressed a desire to conquer is Taiwan, and its dominant position in global semiconductors makes it impossible for China to even attempt an invasion of the island without a swift and not very kind international response.
Additionally, China imports the vast majority of its energy, most of the raw materials for its manufacturing economy, and a significant quantity of its foodstuffs and other materials for agriculture. In the event of a war with another major power, all that power has to do is blockade the Malacca Strait and China's economy is pretty much shut down. India would almost certainly participate in such a blockade--they have the naval assets and the proximity to mount and sustain such a blockade far longer than China can withstand having their imports effectively curtailed. Australia would be quite likely to join in, and the United States would of course be involved as the US is the major power with whom China is most likely to go to war.
Japan, for its part, would certainly participate in blockading the northern accesses to the First Island Chain.
There are few war scenarios for China which do not include having seaborne imports and most exports dramatically curtailed, all with major negative consequences for the Chinese economy.
It would not matter how much wealth, money, and gold China had stockpiled--if the imports are blocked at sea then China's economy is effectively at a standstill.
Does Xi Jinping realize this? That no one can really say. But even if he does not, the vulnerabilities are a factor of China's geography and not what Xi does or does not understand about that geography.
Xi might try war to sustain the economy--but he would almost certainly put China in an untenable position leading to both military and geopolitical defeat. The end result could be a domination of China by the West to rival the Unequal Treaties of the 19th century.
My personal take is that China's geography is all wrong for using war as a means of economic stimulus.
China has already expanded to her natural borders. To the south the jungles of Southeast Asia are pretty impenatrable, to the West there is the Himalayan Mountain range and the Gobi desert. To the north there is the Siberian steppe--a vast area of little infrastructure and fewer people. To the east is the Pacific Ocean.
Unlike Germany in the 1930s, or Russia today, there are no territories close at hand which are easily invaded for the purposes of exploiting their resources. Moreover, the one territory China has expressed a desire to conquer is Taiwan, and its dominant position in global semiconductors makes it impossible for China to even attempt an invasion of the island without a swift and not very kind international response.
Additionally, China imports the vast majority of its energy, most of the raw materials for its manufacturing economy, and a significant quantity of its foodstuffs and other materials for agriculture. In the event of a war with another major power, all that power has to do is blockade the Malacca Strait and China's economy is pretty much shut down. India would almost certainly participate in such a blockade--they have the naval assets and the proximity to mount and sustain such a blockade far longer than China can withstand having their imports effectively curtailed. Australia would be quite likely to join in, and the United States would of course be involved as the US is the major power with whom China is most likely to go to war.
Japan, for its part, would certainly participate in blockading the northern accesses to the First Island Chain.
There are few war scenarios for China which do not include having seaborne imports and most exports dramatically curtailed, all with major negative consequences for the Chinese economy.
It would not matter how much wealth, money, and gold China had stockpiled--if the imports are blocked at sea then China's economy is effectively at a standstill.
Does Xi Jinping realize this? That no one can really say. But even if he does not, the vulnerabilities are a factor of China's geography and not what Xi does or does not understand about that geography.
Xi might try war to sustain the economy--but he would almost certainly put China in an untenable position leading to both military and geopolitical defeat. The end result could be a domination of China by the West to rival the Unequal Treaties of the 19th century.