“Most economists agree that if it needed to, China could launch a big bazooka.” Is an interesting choice of words. The question is will China’s economic condition make it more or less likely to lead her to war. It can be argued both ways.
Although manufacturing activity has been down for ten out of the past eleven months, I’ve read that China has over-manufactured goods in recent years, and has been dumping them on the US to raise cash. Meanwhile, Trump has said that he will impose a 60% tariff on China. I would think that this threat would make China try to dump even more of their excess, and quickly, before tariffs are imposed. This will impact the US economy in ways that will make Trump and Congress all the more likely to carry out the threat - UNLESS, in doing so, they precipitate the collapse of China’s economy in ways that are destructive to the US economy. So, my question is: how would you think the imposition of a 60% tariff would play out?
I’ve been reading quite a few media deep-dives on China in recent months, and yours, Peter, are always the best on every metric I can think of - hard data, comprehensiveness, insightful analysis and conclusions, wise interpretations, etc. You are not misled by anything, whether it’s propaganda, fudged data, or superficial coverage by reporters. You are just the best, so thank you once again!
The Forbes editorial surprised me - are they really that superficially informed and naive about China’s culture and economy? It makes me think that their editorial was a paid piece by someone with interests in propping up China, or some similar explanation. Did you have that suspicion as well?
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-technology-software-delete-america-2b8ea89f?st=f21a183e3aaixg2&reflink=article_imessage_share
“Most economists agree that if it needed to, China could launch a big bazooka.” Is an interesting choice of words. The question is will China’s economic condition make it more or less likely to lead her to war. It can be argued both ways.
Although manufacturing activity has been down for ten out of the past eleven months, I’ve read that China has over-manufactured goods in recent years, and has been dumping them on the US to raise cash. Meanwhile, Trump has said that he will impose a 60% tariff on China. I would think that this threat would make China try to dump even more of their excess, and quickly, before tariffs are imposed. This will impact the US economy in ways that will make Trump and Congress all the more likely to carry out the threat - UNLESS, in doing so, they precipitate the collapse of China’s economy in ways that are destructive to the US economy. So, my question is: how would you think the imposition of a 60% tariff would play out?
Of possible interest:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/china/ccp-again-touts-rising-east-propaganda-to-cover-up-the-declining-economy-5598210?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
https://www.theepochtimes.com/china/is-china-exporting-deflation-to-the-world-5598434?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
https://www.theepochtimes.com/china/chinas-leadership-faces-challenges-at-annual-two-sessions-meeting-experts-5600226?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
I’ve been reading quite a few media deep-dives on China in recent months, and yours, Peter, are always the best on every metric I can think of - hard data, comprehensiveness, insightful analysis and conclusions, wise interpretations, etc. You are not misled by anything, whether it’s propaganda, fudged data, or superficial coverage by reporters. You are just the best, so thank you once again!
The Forbes editorial surprised me - are they really that superficially informed and naive about China’s culture and economy? It makes me think that their editorial was a paid piece by someone with interests in propping up China, or some similar explanation. Did you have that suspicion as well?