I'm hearing Wagner troops have been given a choice: They can join the regular Russian army, or they can also be "exiled" to Belarus. I'm also hearing Wagner's recruiting offices in Russia have re-opened.
What major city is less than 200 km south of Belarus by road?
Is it? How much progress did Wagner make between Rostov and Moscow in ~24h? More than the distance between southern Belarus and Kiev!
Consider the possibility that this was an intentional show so that Zelensky would have to worry about his northern flank again, and decide how many resources he needs to defend it. Where will those resources come from? If he pulls them from the eastern front, he'll weaken the counter-offensive there that's already struggling to make any progress. If he leaves his northern flank undefended, he puts Kiev at risk.
From what I understand of Ukrainian offensive operations thus far they have yet to commit the bulk of their forces assembled for the offensive. The delay has been finding a weak spot in the Russian defenses to force a breakthrough.
If that's the case then Ukraine has an uncommitted reserve force that could intercept a Wagner Group column coming from Belarus.
One thing is certain: Ukraine would put up much more than just token resistance, which is what Wagner Group faced on the M4.
A lightning strike from Belarus would be a good move for Russia if they could master the supply lines--which were non-existent the first time.
The thing is, why the deception of the "rebellion"? Why the display of weakness inside Russia to Russians? Wagner Group was already rotated out of Bakhmut to the rear, and could have easily been redeployed to Belarus.
There's no strategic or tactical advantage to a false flag operation of this sort. It's the kind of deception that defines "too clever by half".
Simplicity is at the heart of every good deception. In WW2, the Allies distracted Hitler from the true target of the D-Day landings by converting the real First United States Army Group (at the time commanded by Omar Bradley and never more than a skeletal administrative structure that had never received actual operational forces) into a fictitious army group which was then placed under Patton.
On the battlefield, a "quaker gun"--a tree made to look like an actual cannon--was an effective tool of deception during the 18th and 19th century.
Russia could have accomplished all of the same deception goals without roiling the interior of Russia by having Prigozhin suffer a "heart attack"--and then surreptitiously going to Minsk to organize a Wagner invasion force, which would be built up by rotating Wagner forces slowly from their field camps in the rear. By August or September Prigozhin would have a suitable force to make a blitz attack on Kyiv.
Even without deception, it would take until at least August to assemble an invasion force in Belarus to strike at Kyiv with enough supplies and gasoline to get there.
Instead of pulling attention away from Wagner Group, what's unfolding now archives, this does the polar opposite.
We didn't get any benefit from this, as Prigozhin may have taken the 6.2 Billion and run.
Also, he is from Saint Petersburg (Leningrad) just like Putin, so Putin may have used this episode to take out his Moscow enemies.
The presumed stalemate in Ukraine, ridiculous when Russia has an escalate to deescalate strategy, is just being continued for the money. This was just a payoff to Putin & Prigozhin to continue as before. What is important is that the pedo labs continue. The adrenochrome must flow, unendingly.
Do I believe any of that, strangely enough, it fits.
Illuminating details and prudent analysis, Mr. Kust. And you’re right, nobody knows the complete picture of what’s going on here.
One of the most interesting aspects of living is that the future is truly unknowable. Who knows what the status of Russia and the Ukraine will be six months from now?
As a side note, a few years ago I read “From Cold War to Hot Peace”(2018), by Michael McFaul, who had been Obama’s ambassador to Russia. He was very diplomatic in his writing, being careful not to burn any bridges. But the one thing he practically shouted to his readers was “Don’t trust Putin!!!”. Putin came up through the KGB, his buddies are former KGB, he owes favors to former KGB, and he is ruthless!
Putin was KGB, but he was not one of that agency's brightest lights.
He's never been even clever in the manner of Stalin or Kruschev, and certainly has never had the bureaucratic fluency of Brezhnev.
In poker the least reliable and frequently most dangerous player is the fish who does not know how to bluff or read other players. Putin is nothing if not a bad poker player.
Just to add to the confusion over Prigozhin's Rebellion, the criminal case has been closed... again.
https://substack.com/@allfactsmatter/note/c-17812754
I'm hearing Wagner troops have been given a choice: They can join the regular Russian army, or they can also be "exiled" to Belarus. I'm also hearing Wagner's recruiting offices in Russia have re-opened.
What major city is less than 200 km south of Belarus by road?
There has been speculation that this is cover for a a fresh attack on Kyiv.
Although I have to wonder if Wagner has the logistics for a blitzkrieg strike.
Russia is quite adept at false flags, but this is an awfully convoluted strategy
Is it? How much progress did Wagner make between Rostov and Moscow in ~24h? More than the distance between southern Belarus and Kiev!
Consider the possibility that this was an intentional show so that Zelensky would have to worry about his northern flank again, and decide how many resources he needs to defend it. Where will those resources come from? If he pulls them from the eastern front, he'll weaken the counter-offensive there that's already struggling to make any progress. If he leaves his northern flank undefended, he puts Kiev at risk.
"All warfare is based on deception."
From what I understand of Ukrainian offensive operations thus far they have yet to commit the bulk of their forces assembled for the offensive. The delay has been finding a weak spot in the Russian defenses to force a breakthrough.
If that's the case then Ukraine has an uncommitted reserve force that could intercept a Wagner Group column coming from Belarus.
One thing is certain: Ukraine would put up much more than just token resistance, which is what Wagner Group faced on the M4.
A lightning strike from Belarus would be a good move for Russia if they could master the supply lines--which were non-existent the first time.
The thing is, why the deception of the "rebellion"? Why the display of weakness inside Russia to Russians? Wagner Group was already rotated out of Bakhmut to the rear, and could have easily been redeployed to Belarus.
There's no strategic or tactical advantage to a false flag operation of this sort. It's the kind of deception that defines "too clever by half".
... or the kind of deception that keeps your opponent guessing what your plan really is, which is the position you want him in, no?
Not really.
Simplicity is at the heart of every good deception. In WW2, the Allies distracted Hitler from the true target of the D-Day landings by converting the real First United States Army Group (at the time commanded by Omar Bradley and never more than a skeletal administrative structure that had never received actual operational forces) into a fictitious army group which was then placed under Patton.
On the battlefield, a "quaker gun"--a tree made to look like an actual cannon--was an effective tool of deception during the 18th and 19th century.
Russia could have accomplished all of the same deception goals without roiling the interior of Russia by having Prigozhin suffer a "heart attack"--and then surreptitiously going to Minsk to organize a Wagner invasion force, which would be built up by rotating Wagner forces slowly from their field camps in the rear. By August or September Prigozhin would have a suitable force to make a blitz attack on Kyiv.
Even without deception, it would take until at least August to assemble an invasion force in Belarus to strike at Kyiv with enough supplies and gasoline to get there.
Instead of pulling attention away from Wagner Group, what's unfolding now archives, this does the polar opposite.
We didn't get any benefit from this, as Prigozhin may have taken the 6.2 Billion and run.
Also, he is from Saint Petersburg (Leningrad) just like Putin, so Putin may have used this episode to take out his Moscow enemies.
The presumed stalemate in Ukraine, ridiculous when Russia has an escalate to deescalate strategy, is just being continued for the money. This was just a payoff to Putin & Prigozhin to continue as before. What is important is that the pedo labs continue. The adrenochrome must flow, unendingly.
Do I believe any of that, strangely enough, it fits.
Illuminating details and prudent analysis, Mr. Kust. And you’re right, nobody knows the complete picture of what’s going on here.
One of the most interesting aspects of living is that the future is truly unknowable. Who knows what the status of Russia and the Ukraine will be six months from now?
As a side note, a few years ago I read “From Cold War to Hot Peace”(2018), by Michael McFaul, who had been Obama’s ambassador to Russia. He was very diplomatic in his writing, being careful not to burn any bridges. But the one thing he practically shouted to his readers was “Don’t trust Putin!!!”. Putin came up through the KGB, his buddies are former KGB, he owes favors to former KGB, and he is ruthless!
Putin was KGB, but he was not one of that agency's brightest lights.
He's never been even clever in the manner of Stalin or Kruschev, and certainly has never had the bureaucratic fluency of Brezhnev.
In poker the least reliable and frequently most dangerous player is the fish who does not know how to bluff or read other players. Putin is nothing if not a bad poker player.