Energy prices, food and insurance costs are still punitive compared to affordability. Southern California’s last two months of record heat, has delivered utility bills looking like mortgage statements, and wages are not keeping up. In addition, 1.5 trillion in commercial loans are coming due in 2025 and office buildings are not anywhere near occupancy pre-COVID
That's just the price rises since the start of the (Biden-)Harris Administration.
By way of comparison during the first three years of the Trump Administration, energy prices rose 7.7%, food prices rose 5%, and overall consumer prices rose 6%.
Even a comparison of real disposable income to personal consumption expenditures shows that while spending has risen 11% since January of 2021, real incomes have fallen 7%.
What's happening in Commercial Real Estate is a ticking time bomb that is going to go off somewhere in the financial system maybe as soon as next spring.
Indeed, there's the rub, because we're seeing inflation improve about as much as it's able to improve because of structural forces, meaning inflation is set to get worse over the near to medium term even as things like the coming commercial real estate meltdown break over the economy.
Thank you for another smart, comprehensive analysis, Peter. You always manage to put together the kind of accurate picture that people need to make decisions. That’s really impressive!
Unfortunately for Trump, there’s too much data here that Harris can spin to her benefit. Trump needs a clear indication that Bidenomics is NOT working for consumers. Peter, are you seeing any brand new trends beginning - maybe a jump in energy prices just this month, or something similarly significant - that would work to Trump’s favor? We need some clear, big signal within the next forty days!
We aren't going to see any clear signals just yet, although the recent enactments of new tariffs on Chinese importers is already being discussed as likely to goose a range of consumer prices.
But it's also important to realize that the data already shows Bidenomics isn't working. No matter which subindex of the CPI you use as the deflator, real incomes dropped in 2021 and have staged no meaningful comback since. The most dramatic telling of this flat-lining of real incomes is found with the Food Subindex.
That’s what I’m hoping! Harris will say, oh look, energy prices have been coming down, but people will grouse oh yeah? I’ve just been grocery shopping and things are NOT better!
It’s the cursed, frustrating ‘spin’ that Harris will use to deceive the voters. I wish they could be hearing a fact-based, rational analysis like yours, Peter. So much depends upon it now! Arrrgghh.
Energy prices, food and insurance costs are still punitive compared to affordability. Southern California’s last two months of record heat, has delivered utility bills looking like mortgage statements, and wages are not keeping up. In addition, 1.5 trillion in commercial loans are coming due in 2025 and office buildings are not anywhere near occupancy pre-COVID
Oh that's absolutely true.
Energy prices are up roughly 31% relative just to January 2021.
Food prices are up roughly 21%
Overall consumer prices are up 19%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tNCc
That's just the price rises since the start of the (Biden-)Harris Administration.
By way of comparison during the first three years of the Trump Administration, energy prices rose 7.7%, food prices rose 5%, and overall consumer prices rose 6%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tNCG
Even a comparison of real disposable income to personal consumption expenditures shows that while spending has risen 11% since January of 2021, real incomes have fallen 7%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tNDq
What's happening in Commercial Real Estate is a ticking time bomb that is going to go off somewhere in the financial system maybe as soon as next spring.
Indeed, there's the rub, because we're seeing inflation improve about as much as it's able to improve because of structural forces, meaning inflation is set to get worse over the near to medium term even as things like the coming commercial real estate meltdown break over the economy.
Thank you for another smart, comprehensive analysis, Peter. You always manage to put together the kind of accurate picture that people need to make decisions. That’s really impressive!
Unfortunately for Trump, there’s too much data here that Harris can spin to her benefit. Trump needs a clear indication that Bidenomics is NOT working for consumers. Peter, are you seeing any brand new trends beginning - maybe a jump in energy prices just this month, or something similarly significant - that would work to Trump’s favor? We need some clear, big signal within the next forty days!
We aren't going to see any clear signals just yet, although the recent enactments of new tariffs on Chinese importers is already being discussed as likely to goose a range of consumer prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/13/shein-and-temu-prices-poised-to-rise-after-biden-de-minimis-proposal.html
That's certainly not going to help inflation any.
But it's also important to realize that the data already shows Bidenomics isn't working. No matter which subindex of the CPI you use as the deflator, real incomes dropped in 2021 and have staged no meaningful comback since. The most dramatic telling of this flat-lining of real incomes is found with the Food Subindex.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQABqDzP2D8LK6pALyL1ltPp5j8iJcnyStdJ_NzKtf5poZdrveKQXlPtS6VBi3a4HV2EdpAMFznDFdd/pubchart?oid=1815580968&format=image
People should already be able to tell that Kamalanomics is not working.
That’s what I’m hoping! Harris will say, oh look, energy prices have been coming down, but people will grouse oh yeah? I’ve just been grocery shopping and things are NOT better!
Energy prices are "down" only because they were first "up". Since the start of Kamala's Reign of Error energy prices are up 31%.
This is why I wish you were officially on Trump’s team, Peter. You’ve got the info that every voter in America needs to hear on a daily basis!
This info is public knowledge. I don't use any information which is not freely available.
It’s the cursed, frustrating ‘spin’ that Harris will use to deceive the voters. I wish they could be hearing a fact-based, rational analysis like yours, Peter. So much depends upon it now! Arrrgghh.