The end of northern hemisphere winter will also reduce demand for the heating oil fraction which should reduce any gap between diesel supply and demand. But then spring is also planting season so agricultural diesel demand should rise. Then again, the fertilizer shortage (another effect of the Ukraine conflict) may limit the European agr…
The end of northern hemisphere winter will also reduce demand for the heating oil fraction which should reduce any gap between diesel supply and demand. But then spring is also planting season so agricultural diesel demand should rise. Then again, the fertilizer shortage (another effect of the Ukraine conflict) may limit the European agricultural activity.
All of which reinforces your focus on 'if'. Personally, I still think Europe is living on borrowed time (& money) and will be forced to drop the sanctions before Russia is greatly damaged - my 2 cents
Given that Russia's oil production was already reduced from where it was just before the invasion of Ukraine, and given that Russia in October acknowledged technical hurdles in ramping production back up again, the possibility that Russia may not be able to bring the idled production back online again cannot be dismissed entirely.
At the present time, the economic indicators suggest Europe is better able to withstand this economic attritional warfare (Russia's economy is already contracting, while Europe's is still problematic in that area), but it's not a huge difference. I'm not making any predictions on who will win.
But make no mistake about it--Russia is ALREADY greatly damaged. Economically and militarily, they are going to come out of this war in Ukraine substantially and possibly even permanently diminished. Economically, Europe is facing a similar fate, enough so that even framing the outcome as a "victory" could prove to be a tad presumptuous for either side.
The end of northern hemisphere winter will also reduce demand for the heating oil fraction which should reduce any gap between diesel supply and demand. But then spring is also planting season so agricultural diesel demand should rise. Then again, the fertilizer shortage (another effect of the Ukraine conflict) may limit the European agricultural activity.
All of which reinforces your focus on 'if'. Personally, I still think Europe is living on borrowed time (& money) and will be forced to drop the sanctions before Russia is greatly damaged - my 2 cents
Given that Russia's oil production was already reduced from where it was just before the invasion of Ukraine, and given that Russia in October acknowledged technical hurdles in ramping production back up again, the possibility that Russia may not be able to bring the idled production back online again cannot be dismissed entirely.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/could-the-oil-price-cap-end-russian
At the present time, the economic indicators suggest Europe is better able to withstand this economic attritional warfare (Russia's economy is already contracting, while Europe's is still problematic in that area), but it's not a huge difference. I'm not making any predictions on who will win.
But make no mistake about it--Russia is ALREADY greatly damaged. Economically and militarily, they are going to come out of this war in Ukraine substantially and possibly even permanently diminished. Economically, Europe is facing a similar fate, enough so that even framing the outcome as a "victory" could prove to be a tad presumptuous for either side.