Russia’s FSB (successor to the Soviet KGB) has been investigating the attack on the Kerch Bridge and this morning announced some of its preliminary results.
The FSB detained eight accomplices in the preparation of the attack. "Currently, five citizens of Russia, three citizens of Ukraine and Armenia, who participated in the preparation of the crime, have been detained within the framework of the criminal case," the CSO said.
By the numbers, the FSB has found more Russians involved in sabotaging the bridge than any other nationality. Which is an interesting commentary on the true depth of public support within Russia for Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Russia has a population of ~145 million people. I don't think you make any assessment of public support for the war based on the actions of five of them.
One certainly cannot infer a percentage of public support from this as if it were an opinion poll.
However, that Ukraine/NATO could apparently recruit five indicates there is a cohort of Russians sufficiently opposed to Putin's war to participate in asymmetric attacks on Russian infrastructure, and otherwise willing to form some degree of resistance underground opposed to Putin.
A resistance movement of that sort need not enjoy majority support within the population to inflict significant damage to Putin's war efforts.
Nor is this the first intimation of such a resistance effort. Back in May there was media speculation Ukraine was conducting a campaign of sabotage deep within Russia.
The FSB may very well just have given us confirmation from the Russian side that this is indeed happening, and that there is a Russian resistance movement to Putin operating behind the scenes.
The driver may well have been "blind", in other words clueless what he was carrying or the fact that he was about to be blown to bits.
Ukraine doesn't need to have a sophisticated intelligence apparatus of their own. It's quite clear that most NATO members plus the Five Eyes are more than willing to share their their intelligence with Ukraine.
Re: The driver. While it is possible the driver was collateral damage, it would be difficult if not impossible to time the explosion so that it would go off right next to a tanker train. That level of precision indicates a manual detonation, either there in the truck or remote line of sight.
With scant evidence, and no evidence to the contrary, it seems to me that a suicide bomber truck driver is the parsimonious explanation here.
True enough, but with the FSB accusing Ukraine of being the mastermind Putin is, whether he realizes it or not, effectively saying the Ukrainians do have that sort of sophisticated intelligence apparatus.
That may or may not be true. If it's not true and this is a NATO-managed operation (a distinct probability, BTW), then Putin is letting NATO off the hook if he had any proof NATO organized an attack on Russia proper--an act of war by anyone's playbook. That opens up its own can of worms.
Regardless, Putin is facing a situation where nothing within Russia is safe from asymmetric attack.
Russia has a population of ~145 million people. I don't think you make any assessment of public support for the war based on the actions of five of them.
One certainly cannot infer a percentage of public support from this as if it were an opinion poll.
However, that Ukraine/NATO could apparently recruit five indicates there is a cohort of Russians sufficiently opposed to Putin's war to participate in asymmetric attacks on Russian infrastructure, and otherwise willing to form some degree of resistance underground opposed to Putin.
A resistance movement of that sort need not enjoy majority support within the population to inflict significant damage to Putin's war efforts.
Nor is this the first intimation of such a resistance effort. Back in May there was media speculation Ukraine was conducting a campaign of sabotage deep within Russia.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220508060415/https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220508-is-ukraine-conducting-a-sabotage-campaign-inside-russia-1
The FSB may very well just have given us confirmation from the Russian side that this is indeed happening, and that there is a Russian resistance movement to Putin operating behind the scenes.
The plot thickens.
Russians, Ukrainians, Armenians, and the original TASS report had the driver as an Azerbaijani.
Which means Ukraine has a fairly sophisticated intelligence apparatus.
No wonder Putin is pissed about the bridge. With a network like that Ukraine can launch asymmetric attacks anywhere in Russia.
The driver may well have been "blind", in other words clueless what he was carrying or the fact that he was about to be blown to bits.
Ukraine doesn't need to have a sophisticated intelligence apparatus of their own. It's quite clear that most NATO members plus the Five Eyes are more than willing to share their their intelligence with Ukraine.
Re: The driver. While it is possible the driver was collateral damage, it would be difficult if not impossible to time the explosion so that it would go off right next to a tanker train. That level of precision indicates a manual detonation, either there in the truck or remote line of sight.
With scant evidence, and no evidence to the contrary, it seems to me that a suicide bomber truck driver is the parsimonious explanation here.
True enough, but with the FSB accusing Ukraine of being the mastermind Putin is, whether he realizes it or not, effectively saying the Ukrainians do have that sort of sophisticated intelligence apparatus.
That may or may not be true. If it's not true and this is a NATO-managed operation (a distinct probability, BTW), then Putin is letting NATO off the hook if he had any proof NATO organized an attack on Russia proper--an act of war by anyone's playbook. That opens up its own can of worms.
Regardless, Putin is facing a situation where nothing within Russia is safe from asymmetric attack.