Manufacturing. Nobody wants to do it anymore. This isn't an old person, kids today, comment. The average age in manufacturing is pretty high and the ones that could retire in the last 3 years did.
The company I work for is deliberately (trying to) over hiring, in a recession, to try to get ahead of the attrition. If you look at any major corporations job board it's the same thing. We're now offering a 10k sign on bonus for electricians. Systems engineers get a 25k sign on bonus and a 10k referral bonus.
Last time I checked p&g had 13k job openings.
This is going to be a weird recession because the people that normally would be laid off to preserve stock prices don't exist. Sure plants will close but it won't be enough to solve the labor shortage.
Whether the US workforce overall "wants" to do manufacturing is indeed a question.
However, the seeming labor imbalance extends beyond manufacturing. There was a huge exodus of workers during the 2020 recession, and yet net non-farm hires and separations do not appear to have replaced a large portion of them. This despite persistent underemployment and some 5.7 million workers technically not in the labor force but who at least claim to want a job.
Exactly why this is a question that definitely warrants scrutiny. While the failure of pay rises to keep pace with inflation is a likely factor, that doesn't account for people seemingly willingly choosing to forego the higher pay rates generally associated with manufacturing jobs.
I am tempted to see a parallel between the holes in US labor markets and the anecdotal references to the Chinese phenomenon of "laying down", where young people are more or less dropping out of Chinese society (and the labor force in particular).
For whatever reason, a great many individuals appear to be making a choice for something other than work.
As you say, it is going to be a weird recession. Hell, it already is!
Manufacturing. Nobody wants to do it anymore. This isn't an old person, kids today, comment. The average age in manufacturing is pretty high and the ones that could retire in the last 3 years did.
The company I work for is deliberately (trying to) over hiring, in a recession, to try to get ahead of the attrition. If you look at any major corporations job board it's the same thing. We're now offering a 10k sign on bonus for electricians. Systems engineers get a 25k sign on bonus and a 10k referral bonus.
Last time I checked p&g had 13k job openings.
This is going to be a weird recession because the people that normally would be laid off to preserve stock prices don't exist. Sure plants will close but it won't be enough to solve the labor shortage.
Whether the US workforce overall "wants" to do manufacturing is indeed a question.
However, the seeming labor imbalance extends beyond manufacturing. There was a huge exodus of workers during the 2020 recession, and yet net non-farm hires and separations do not appear to have replaced a large portion of them. This despite persistent underemployment and some 5.7 million workers technically not in the labor force but who at least claim to want a job.
Exactly why this is a question that definitely warrants scrutiny. While the failure of pay rises to keep pace with inflation is a likely factor, that doesn't account for people seemingly willingly choosing to forego the higher pay rates generally associated with manufacturing jobs.
I am tempted to see a parallel between the holes in US labor markets and the anecdotal references to the Chinese phenomenon of "laying down", where young people are more or less dropping out of Chinese society (and the labor force in particular).
For whatever reason, a great many individuals appear to be making a choice for something other than work.
As you say, it is going to be a weird recession. Hell, it already is!