At this point, I think the "experts'" job is to just try to cover up what their failed management has unleashed in the world economy. Observing today, they just plan on waiting it out--hoping they can avoid obvious disaster and move into growth. The media has provided enough cover in the past for this, but I fear the economic stagnation and/or decline may be prolonged and too obvious to the average citizen around the world.
Their problem is they all screwed up at about the same time. We're seeing the results of synchronized stupidity on a scale never before achieved in human history.
One of the best things about your Substack is the wealth of hard, factual data you continuously unearth. It supports your analysis and has many times changed my view of what’s developing (for example, I worried about the imposition of CBDCs until you explained how they simply cannot work). I agree, the world is headed for a long period of hard economic times, as your data irrefutably shows. It’s the details you provide that make the difference. For example, about ten years ago, I read an article in Wired magazine about China’s Belt and Road Initiative, forging economic ties with dozens of underdeveloped countries in ways that made me worried about those countries becoming military allies with China in any conflict. But your explanation of the unforgiving lending conditions flips my understanding to realizing that they are more likely to end up antagonist to China! What a difference a little knowledge of harsh lending practices can make!
Your columns invariably stir up plenty of speculations and questions. In your digging for data, have you encountered any intriguing strategies countries have for dealing with the developing economic picture? For example, does China have a stated ‘plan’ for fixing their 20.4 % unemployment rate amongst those 16-24 years old? Has Germany come up with any viable tactics to deal with their economic woes?
The absolute best thing about your column is your brilliant analysis, Mr. Kust. Seriously, I wish you were employed at Cabinet level; this country needs you!
Thank you for your kind words! I'm glad you find my research helpful.
Does China have a focused strategy for their high youth unemployment? Not exactly. Beijing is interested in using stimulus spending to goose the economy, and to the extent that is successful it will likely make a dent in their youth unemployment.
However, the youth unemployment may also be a consequence of the "lying flat" phenomenon also among China's youth. Some of them may be unemployed by choice.
Yes, I read up on the ‘lying flat’ aspect after you mentioned it. It’s the sort of cultural trend that can have far greater impact on the course of a nation than given credit - until examined retroactively. The young Chinese had grandparents and great-grandparents who were oppressed and even killed by Mao, but that’s all ancient history to them now. What they personally feel is stagnation in their own prospects and resentment towards government. Remember Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs - that after you have enough food and shelter, you want more and better of everything until you reach the highest level, needing freedom and self-actualization? The Chinese youth have neither, and see little chance of obtaining them. I think it’s eventually going to result in a seismic cultural event. To chase after a personal dream of your own, to fulfill who you are as a unique individual, is the very essence of living. It cannot be squelched indefinitely without consequences.
You may think I’m a fawning fool, repeatedly complimenting you, but I’m just so delighted you exist! I have an engineering degree and a master’s, so I’ve worked with plenty of good, analytical minds. What has surprised me is how few of them have a feel for the big picture, or any ‘vision’ in life. I had a few genius-level friends in high school, and so expected to find many more of them throughout life. I have not. What I have seen is that the people who have the full range and depth of humanity and deep thought, such as yourself, end up dropping out of society (to some extent) in order to find personal happiness and fulfillment. I know that I had to finally abandon the corporate life to be ‘me’ - and I haven’t regretted it. I would like to see you find a larger audience for your insights than what you have on Substack. I believe the quality of your work ensures that you eventually will, and I sense that you are taking an intuitive path to it. As you’ve said, reality always wins!
At this point, I think the "experts'" job is to just try to cover up what their failed management has unleashed in the world economy. Observing today, they just plan on waiting it out--hoping they can avoid obvious disaster and move into growth. The media has provided enough cover in the past for this, but I fear the economic stagnation and/or decline may be prolonged and too obvious to the average citizen around the world.
Their problem is they all screwed up at about the same time. We're seeing the results of synchronized stupidity on a scale never before achieved in human history.
One of the best things about your Substack is the wealth of hard, factual data you continuously unearth. It supports your analysis and has many times changed my view of what’s developing (for example, I worried about the imposition of CBDCs until you explained how they simply cannot work). I agree, the world is headed for a long period of hard economic times, as your data irrefutably shows. It’s the details you provide that make the difference. For example, about ten years ago, I read an article in Wired magazine about China’s Belt and Road Initiative, forging economic ties with dozens of underdeveloped countries in ways that made me worried about those countries becoming military allies with China in any conflict. But your explanation of the unforgiving lending conditions flips my understanding to realizing that they are more likely to end up antagonist to China! What a difference a little knowledge of harsh lending practices can make!
Your columns invariably stir up plenty of speculations and questions. In your digging for data, have you encountered any intriguing strategies countries have for dealing with the developing economic picture? For example, does China have a stated ‘plan’ for fixing their 20.4 % unemployment rate amongst those 16-24 years old? Has Germany come up with any viable tactics to deal with their economic woes?
The absolute best thing about your column is your brilliant analysis, Mr. Kust. Seriously, I wish you were employed at Cabinet level; this country needs you!
Thank you for your kind words! I'm glad you find my research helpful.
Does China have a focused strategy for their high youth unemployment? Not exactly. Beijing is interested in using stimulus spending to goose the economy, and to the extent that is successful it will likely make a dent in their youth unemployment.
However, the youth unemployment may also be a consequence of the "lying flat" phenomenon also among China's youth. Some of them may be unemployed by choice.
Yes, I read up on the ‘lying flat’ aspect after you mentioned it. It’s the sort of cultural trend that can have far greater impact on the course of a nation than given credit - until examined retroactively. The young Chinese had grandparents and great-grandparents who were oppressed and even killed by Mao, but that’s all ancient history to them now. What they personally feel is stagnation in their own prospects and resentment towards government. Remember Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs - that after you have enough food and shelter, you want more and better of everything until you reach the highest level, needing freedom and self-actualization? The Chinese youth have neither, and see little chance of obtaining them. I think it’s eventually going to result in a seismic cultural event. To chase after a personal dream of your own, to fulfill who you are as a unique individual, is the very essence of living. It cannot be squelched indefinitely without consequences.
You may think I’m a fawning fool, repeatedly complimenting you, but I’m just so delighted you exist! I have an engineering degree and a master’s, so I’ve worked with plenty of good, analytical minds. What has surprised me is how few of them have a feel for the big picture, or any ‘vision’ in life. I had a few genius-level friends in high school, and so expected to find many more of them throughout life. I have not. What I have seen is that the people who have the full range and depth of humanity and deep thought, such as yourself, end up dropping out of society (to some extent) in order to find personal happiness and fulfillment. I know that I had to finally abandon the corporate life to be ‘me’ - and I haven’t regretted it. I would like to see you find a larger audience for your insights than what you have on Substack. I believe the quality of your work ensures that you eventually will, and I sense that you are taking an intuitive path to it. As you’ve said, reality always wins!
So as goes the US, goes the world.
China might be leading the world, but their quality control sucks.
Ever try to fix a Chinese VCR? The Japanese ones are imminently repairable.
Appreciate your posts, you are a real treasure here.
Everyone is going to Hell in the same hand basket.
And thanks for the kind words!
Well, if we are going to Hell in a hand basket, at least it ought to be our own hand basket.
You're welcome.