Really excellent work, Peter. And you’re right, there are a couple of data points that one would think the Biden administration would be spinning and bragging about today, so close to the Election. (Although, as you so admirably show, the spin would not stand up to scrutiny.) One thought that comes to mind is that most Americans right now are doing their taxes. For many families, tax-preparation time is the only time each year when they closely look at their expenses, investments, yearly spreadsheets, etc. I would bet that this assessment right now would get many people fuming that they are NOT better off than they were a year ago, and they will be looking for something to blame - hey, Bidenomics! So maybe Biden’s handlers are strategically waiting until a few weeks after April 15 to bring attention to economics. What do you think, Peter - could this be a factor in how they are dealing with this data, or too small to be of importance?
That might be their strategy. There's no way to know what their exact plans are regarding how they wish to spin the economic news.
As for the relative wisdom of waiting until after April 15th to highlight economics, it is a possibility, but I do not see that being all that helpful.
Keep in mind the economic data exists over time, and must be assessed over time. The latest GDP numbers are not the first set of disappointing data, and they will not be the last. Next month there will be more challenging news, and perhaps even an increase in the quantity of challenging news. Kicking this particular can down the road only makes the can get larger and larger.
They might not want to attempt to do much spin on the data now, but the data is not going anywhere, and it is not getting much if at all better.
If they don't get a spin narrative out quickly on the GDP numbers, they will be playing catch up on the economy from now until the general election in November.
Maybe they just don’t have a strategy at all, except to hope that a) things magically get better, or b) they find someone to blame for all the coming disappointing data.
Really excellent work, Peter. And you’re right, there are a couple of data points that one would think the Biden administration would be spinning and bragging about today, so close to the Election. (Although, as you so admirably show, the spin would not stand up to scrutiny.) One thought that comes to mind is that most Americans right now are doing their taxes. For many families, tax-preparation time is the only time each year when they closely look at their expenses, investments, yearly spreadsheets, etc. I would bet that this assessment right now would get many people fuming that they are NOT better off than they were a year ago, and they will be looking for something to blame - hey, Bidenomics! So maybe Biden’s handlers are strategically waiting until a few weeks after April 15 to bring attention to economics. What do you think, Peter - could this be a factor in how they are dealing with this data, or too small to be of importance?
That might be their strategy. There's no way to know what their exact plans are regarding how they wish to spin the economic news.
As for the relative wisdom of waiting until after April 15th to highlight economics, it is a possibility, but I do not see that being all that helpful.
Keep in mind the economic data exists over time, and must be assessed over time. The latest GDP numbers are not the first set of disappointing data, and they will not be the last. Next month there will be more challenging news, and perhaps even an increase in the quantity of challenging news. Kicking this particular can down the road only makes the can get larger and larger.
They might not want to attempt to do much spin on the data now, but the data is not going anywhere, and it is not getting much if at all better.
If they don't get a spin narrative out quickly on the GDP numbers, they will be playing catch up on the economy from now until the general election in November.
Maybe they just don’t have a strategy at all, except to hope that a) things magically get better, or b) they find someone to blame for all the coming disappointing data.
It's like I always say: "never underestimate the power of stupid!"