If you've got a good income stream to service a mortgage and have locked in a good rate on a 15 or 30 year mortgage, real estate might be a good asset to hold.
However, realize that mortgage rates are likely to keep rising for the near term. The longer you wait to buy, the more expensive the mortgage is going to be.
The Fed is committed to raising rates. That's going to force treasury yields and mortgage rates up. Until the Fed capitulates on rate hikes, folks are going to pay more in interest across the board.
Ed Dowd has been prescient like you, he says having cash is wise because there's nowhere to turn, but some cash is not the same as no equities, or broad index fund. I just don't know if I should take all the equity mutual funds off the table, esp on the door of retirement. Thank you for all your detail.
Speaking broadly in terms of investing scarce resources in an economic contraction, the guiding principle I would use is value preservation.
Holding cash is risky during an inflationary phase because inflation destroys the purchasing power of cash. However, the ongoing volatility in financial markets makes a number of equity investment options inherently risky, which may make cash the best means of conserving value.
I will inject a disclaimer here that I do not give specific investment advice. Precise portfolio mixture and other investment technicals is beyond the scope of my commentary.
Disinflation, iow deflation. Maybe they'll avoid a recession & skip ahead to depression.
My mother said only one thing about the depression. "At first it was great because everything was so cheap. Then it was awful because there wasn't anything.
At the 50,000 foot level, yes, disinflation is deflation.
At the hard deck I make the distinction that disinflation is when the factors driving inflation reverse, whereas deflation is a change at a more structural level.
Example: technology has made a number of goods relatively less expensive. The amount of computer one can buy for $1,000 today is much greater than what one could get for $1,000 ten years ago. That's deflation.
When a semiconductor shortage reverses into a glut, pushing spot prices of those components down in the short term, that's disinflation.
As regards recession vs depression, I think Ronald Reagan had the best definition: "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job."
Which is a good reminder that everyone experiences economic adversity individually. What is mild for some might be cataclysmic for others.
I still doubt the "incompetence" excuse, while there is massive incompetence in the Fed and government agencies, that is a designed in feature, like the walls between DOJ/FBI investigative groups Sundance often exposes.
Perhaps. Although whether one is callous or compassionate, actions generally are in pursuit of a desired outcome. If that outcome is not reached, that would be a problem in either case.
Which of course brings us back to the contention/suspicion of many that these actions of the Federal Reserve are an intentional destruction of the US economy. Perhaps this is so.
Regardless of what the Fed intends, people have to make choices to deal with what is actually happening, regardless of whether it is an intended consequence or no. Hopefully, discussions such as these help equip people to make the very best choices they can.
Asset mix for impending stag/deflation? Sell or keep total stock index funds?
50E/30B + 20% cash?
10E/30B + 60% cash?
What about real estate in the mix.
If you've got a good income stream to service a mortgage and have locked in a good rate on a 15 or 30 year mortgage, real estate might be a good asset to hold.
However, realize that mortgage rates are likely to keep rising for the near term. The longer you wait to buy, the more expensive the mortgage is going to be.
The Fed is committed to raising rates. That's going to force treasury yields and mortgage rates up. Until the Fed capitulates on rate hikes, folks are going to pay more in interest across the board.
Sell shares and pay cash for real estate.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Remember, the Fed only THINKS it knows what it's doing. Which means the unintended consequences are going to be ginourmous no matter what.
Ed Dowd has been prescient like you, he says having cash is wise because there's nowhere to turn, but some cash is not the same as no equities, or broad index fund. I just don't know if I should take all the equity mutual funds off the table, esp on the door of retirement. Thank you for all your detail.
https://www.cyclesman.com/audio-commentary/
https://gettr.com/post/p1fn9w98585
Speaking broadly in terms of investing scarce resources in an economic contraction, the guiding principle I would use is value preservation.
Holding cash is risky during an inflationary phase because inflation destroys the purchasing power of cash. However, the ongoing volatility in financial markets makes a number of equity investment options inherently risky, which may make cash the best means of conserving value.
I will inject a disclaimer here that I do not give specific investment advice. Precise portfolio mixture and other investment technicals is beyond the scope of my commentary.
Disinflation, iow deflation. Maybe they'll avoid a recession & skip ahead to depression.
My mother said only one thing about the depression. "At first it was great because everything was so cheap. Then it was awful because there wasn't anything.
Department store here just had a closing down sale.
Same feeling as what I got reading about what your mother said Mary.
At the 50,000 foot level, yes, disinflation is deflation.
At the hard deck I make the distinction that disinflation is when the factors driving inflation reverse, whereas deflation is a change at a more structural level.
Example: technology has made a number of goods relatively less expensive. The amount of computer one can buy for $1,000 today is much greater than what one could get for $1,000 ten years ago. That's deflation.
When a semiconductor shortage reverses into a glut, pushing spot prices of those components down in the short term, that's disinflation.
As regards recession vs depression, I think Ronald Reagan had the best definition: "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job."
Which is a good reminder that everyone experiences economic adversity individually. What is mild for some might be cataclysmic for others.
Superb translation for us regular types.
I still doubt the "incompetence" excuse, while there is massive incompetence in the Fed and government agencies, that is a designed in feature, like the walls between DOJ/FBI investigative groups Sundance often exposes.
This "destruction" is intentional, clearly.
At a certain point, malice vs stupidity vs malicious stupidity becomes a distinction without a difference.
Pretty sure we passed that point some time back.
Callous doesn't need to worry about being non-stupid.
Unintended bad consequences are no problem for them.
Perhaps. Although whether one is callous or compassionate, actions generally are in pursuit of a desired outcome. If that outcome is not reached, that would be a problem in either case.
Which of course brings us back to the contention/suspicion of many that these actions of the Federal Reserve are an intentional destruction of the US economy. Perhaps this is so.
Regardless of what the Fed intends, people have to make choices to deal with what is actually happening, regardless of whether it is an intended consequence or no. Hopefully, discussions such as these help equip people to make the very best choices they can.
I agree, 1913 I think.
LOL