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Peter, if the commercial real estate market significantly declines further, how would you expect the Fed to respond? Not that it would work, but what would you expect them to try, especially before the Election?

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I'm not sure there's much the Fed can do about commercial real estate itself.

The real challenge will be the contagion factor. Real estate crises tend to become banking crises, and the Fed has neither the vision nor the fortitude to resist another TARP style bailout.

Of course, if that should unfold, Dementia Joe will have all sorts of egg on his face, and so will Jay Powell, because the narrative on the economy has been one of strength and prosperity, not weakness and collapse.

The very fact that the Fed might need to act before the election is what will make whatever they decide to do political poison.

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