From a geopolitical and national security perspective, there are arguments for the United States to completely decouple from China, but from the economic perspective, such a decoupling of trade means trade overall is diminished.
There is no way a reduction in trade relations does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China. Similarly, there is no way the disruption in trade relations that is the trade war itself does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China.
That is the price that will be paid by both the United States and China as the cost of this trade war.
Whether China’s economy is in any shape to be paying such a price is, by the numbers, very much in doubt.
Links And Sources
“Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits”:
https://tinyurl.com/5h9mf7z3“Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports”: https://tinyurl.com/mrmjjyn2
“Trump tariffs on China will actually be 145% — not 125% for some imports, White House clarifies”: https://archive.ph/WxIQE
“China Is Trapped In Deflation With No Way Out”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/china-is-trapped-in-deflation-with
“China is well positioned to weather Trump’s trade war”: https://archive.ph/c8dVq
China Consumer Price Index: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/consumer-price-index-cpi
China Core Consumer Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/core-consumer-prices
China Money Supply M1: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m1
China M1 vs US M1 Money Supply (Indexed): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I8QP
China Central Bank Balance Sheet: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/central-bank-balance-sheet
China Banks Balance Sheet: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/banks-balance-sheet
China Export Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/export-prices
China Import Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/import-prices
China Yuan vs US Dollar: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=5Y
China NBS Manufacturing PMI: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
“China: The Sick Man Of Asia”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/china-the-sick-man-of-asia
China Housing Sales — Apartments: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
China Housing Sales — Houses: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
China Housing Starts: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-starts
China Property Investment: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/property-investment
China Residential Property Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/residential-property-prices
China NBS Construction PMI: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
“China’s Xi hits out at Trump, says there are no winners in tariff war”: https://archive.ph/uhXWn
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