Neither tariffs and stagflation nor tariffs and inflation are likely to turn out well for the economy or for President Trump’s agenda. However, tariffs and either stagflation or inflation are very likely what we are about get, and very soon.
Links And Sources
Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays Report: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2025
Headline/Core PCEPI Inflation Rate Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7dx
Headline/Core PCEPI Inflation Rate Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6zm
PCEPI Energy Price Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2ns
PCEPI Food Price Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nB
PCEPI Core Price Inflation Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nM
CPI Core Price Inflation Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7va
Headline/Core CPI Inflation Rate Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve
Headline/Core CPI Inflation Rate Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva
“US PCE Inflation Accelerates, Spending Is Weaker Than Forecast”: https://archive.ph/Rann9
“Inflation Remained Sticky Ahead of Trump’s Escalating Trade War”: https://archive.ph/V04Td
PCE Current Transfer Payments: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6yY
PCE Current Transfer Payments Indexed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6Kz
Personal Consumption Expenditures: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6FT
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E7gI
Commodities Price Indices (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/4j4u8rfh
Copper Futures Prices (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
Treasury Yields: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7fB
“This Economy Is Doing Well?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/this-economy-is-doing-well
Share this post