2 Comments
May 6, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

You might be correct but I'm not so sure. There have been many times when the index markets are struggling and it "feels like the big one" this time. It's like a Fred Sanford routine.

I trade but don't really do a lot of "investing" I do look for places to stash some money and hope it won't go lower. The SPY is generally good for this. I still like the idea of buying the indices by proxy, so SPY, QQQ and DIA. Every time it's looked bad or different we end up rallying. Every time something fundamentally is different, but the story still ends the same way. Those who bet against the index markets are habitual losers while those who buy the dips, especially the panic driven, fear induced, VIX spiking dips, keep getting fatter.

I went heavily into UNG and USO after Biden got 81 million votes (and after declaring war on fossil fuels). Putin has helped those plays a bit but they were already doing great on Brandon's watch. I continue to add to these, it seems likely that gas and oil prices will continue to increase for the next few years and there is plenty of upside potential.

Still lots of potential in a lot of things out there, including the index markets IMO.

Expand full comment
author

The confluence of indices in a downward trajectory is the part that is concerning here. When markets begin to exhibit synchronicity, then the volatility swings that are an inherent part of any natural market dynamic become amplified. Which is why I say that when all the markets head down at the same time that wealth is simply vanishing--and that is never a good thing.

When markets are not showing synchronicity a better perspective on the market dynamics is a flow of money/wealth among markets, always seeking the highest ROI (lowest price). Wealth is not destroyed per se, merely shifted.

This is looking like wealth destruction.

Expand full comment