Whether this becomes a true bursting of a bubble I think remains to be seen.
Much as with the much prognosticated "coming apocalypse" in commercial real estate, while there are warning signs and red flags galore, and while bond funds at a minimum are taking it in the shorts right now, what has not (yet) materialized is a banking and liquidity crisis.
My suspicion is that one is on the way, but the signature feature of such a crisis is a series of bank runs and bank failures, and right now we're not seeing that. This may simply be a matter of time, but even so, it's still a future potentiality and not a current reality.
Which means exactly how the crash unfolds is still a developing story with a lot of details not yet known or even knowable.
I tend to eschew some of the more apocalyptic language in analyzing these things for that reason. I don't discount the possibilities but I also strive not to get ahead of the facts as they are currently. Not respecting where things actually stand is how commentators like Peter Schiff end up predicting the collapse of the US economy for the past decade without it actually happening.
We don't really know how this will play out. It's a good idea not to lose sight of that fact.
Ugh, in 2020/2021 we went into bond etfs and funds since adjustment was prudent being within 6y of retirement and facing health issues and now the ballast portion is sunk, so underwater it’s staggering. Need to decide if we should turn off automatic reinvestment, but cost basis is killing the value. No other choice but to stay the course bc it’s all in IRA and someday (decades?) we’ll be made whole? I feel so stupid but it made sense at the time to adjust AA on risk and life events.
6 years ago we were not looking at hyperinflation and then rising interest rates, and the Fed had made it clear it was not going to radically alter policy.
There was no anticipating the Pandemic Panic Recession, or the Fed's Quantitative Easing on steroids response.
The smartest people in any room can still only work with the data they have in the moment. Unfortunately, perfect information does not exist.
We do the best we can and pray that's enough. That's all anyone can do.
Good analysis as usual. David Haggith had a good read as well today - It's All Collapsing Now, and There is No Way out! - https://www.thedailydoom.com/p/its-all-collapsing-now-and-there
Will be linking both of your articles today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Seems that most analysts I read are pretty much in agreement on this one other than the talking heads on TV!!!
Whether this becomes a true bursting of a bubble I think remains to be seen.
Much as with the much prognosticated "coming apocalypse" in commercial real estate, while there are warning signs and red flags galore, and while bond funds at a minimum are taking it in the shorts right now, what has not (yet) materialized is a banking and liquidity crisis.
My suspicion is that one is on the way, but the signature feature of such a crisis is a series of bank runs and bank failures, and right now we're not seeing that. This may simply be a matter of time, but even so, it's still a future potentiality and not a current reality.
Which means exactly how the crash unfolds is still a developing story with a lot of details not yet known or even knowable.
I tend to eschew some of the more apocalyptic language in analyzing these things for that reason. I don't discount the possibilities but I also strive not to get ahead of the facts as they are currently. Not respecting where things actually stand is how commentators like Peter Schiff end up predicting the collapse of the US economy for the past decade without it actually happening.
We don't really know how this will play out. It's a good idea not to lose sight of that fact.
Ugh, in 2020/2021 we went into bond etfs and funds since adjustment was prudent being within 6y of retirement and facing health issues and now the ballast portion is sunk, so underwater it’s staggering. Need to decide if we should turn off automatic reinvestment, but cost basis is killing the value. No other choice but to stay the course bc it’s all in IRA and someday (decades?) we’ll be made whole? I feel so stupid but it made sense at the time to adjust AA on risk and life events.
6 years ago we were not looking at hyperinflation and then rising interest rates, and the Fed had made it clear it was not going to radically alter policy.
There was no anticipating the Pandemic Panic Recession, or the Fed's Quantitative Easing on steroids response.
The smartest people in any room can still only work with the data they have in the moment. Unfortunately, perfect information does not exist.
We do the best we can and pray that's enough. That's all anyone can do.