To Coup Or Not To Coup?

What Has Just Happened In Russia?

One thing is certain: anyone who thinks they understand the past 24 hours inside of Russia is either grotesquely misinformed or just plain delusional.

This latest series of events began when Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin released statements on Russian social media alleging Russian forces had launched missile strikes against the camps where Wagner forces were quartered since pulling out of Bakhmut earlier this month.

In social networks, on behalf of the founder of PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin, information appeared about the strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the "rear camps" of the company. The Ministry of Defense called it a provocation and said that the Kiev regime took advantage of the situation and is preparing for an offensive. Prigozhin was charged with inciting an armed rebellion. Vladimir Putin issued an address in which he called the armed rebellion organized by Prigozhin the result of "exorbitant ambitions" that led to treason and betrayal.

After accusing the Russian MoD, Prigozhin’s Wagner forces marched on and apparently occupied Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian logistical hub for the Ukraine war.

Prigozhin claimed Saturday that his forces had reached Rostov, saying they faced no resistance from young conscripts at checkpoints and adding that his forces “aren’t fighting against children.”

“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”

He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles.

While as of this writing there is much that is as yet still rather murky about Wagner’s assault on and capture of Rostov-on-Don, it does appear that Wagner forces met at most token resistance, and quite possibly not even that. It may even be that whatever Russian forces were near Rostov experienced some defections of troops to side with Wagner.

From Rostov, Wagner forces almost immediately pivoted to the north and began driving towards Moscow.

Based on statements made by Prigozhin early on, Wagner’s objective in marching on Moscow was the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Indeed, based on Prigozhin’s statements, removing Putin is not an objective of this particular special military operation, just Shoigu.

Prigozhin said his troops would punish Shoigu in an armed rebellion and urged the army not to offer resistance.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin declared.

The National Anti-Terrorism Committee, which is part of the Federal Security Services, or FSB, said he would be investigated on charges of calling for an armed rebellion. The FSB urged Wagner’s contract soldiers to arrest Prigozhin and refuse to follow his “criminal and treacherous orders.” It called his statements a “stab in the back to Russian troops” and said they amounted to fomenting an armed conflict in Russia.

In this regard, these events are not entirely unexpected. Prigozhin and Shoigu have been having a rather nasty soldier spit fight on social media over how the Defense Ministry has treated Wagner, with Prigozhin making increasingly inflammatory and very likely risky statements through his videos.

Paul Lewandoski, a former US combat veteran who runs the “Combat Veteran Reacts” YouTube channel, has run analyses on several of Prigozhin’s videos, noting with some surprise over the constant ratcheting up the rhetoric.

In his daily Ukraine update for June 24, Lewandoski also discussed Prigozhin’s march on Moscow (ongoing as he dropped his daily video), which included assessing how Ukraine might likely respond to these events.

Whether Paul Lewandoski’s analysis of the situation is accurate or way wide of the mark it, ultimately, an unknowable at this point—such is the “fog of war” that always surrounds such events. However, he does make an effort to discuss things from a professional military perspective without getting into the politics swirling around the war in Ukraine.

The crux of his take on these events is that they will not spark an immediate surge in Ukrainian operations, but the fallout from Prigozhin’s “rebellion” could prove quite advantageous for Ukraine in the near future.

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of these events, one intriguing revelation has emerged from the Wagner Group rebellion: There appears to be little if anything in the way of internal defenses or deployments inside Russia. The immediate military response to Wagner Group’s seizing Rostov-on-Don appears to have been redeploying Chechen militia forces from Ukraine towards Moscow and Rostov.

Soldiers of the Akhmat special forces and the 78th motorized regiment of the Sever-Akhmat special forces, who participated in the military operation in the Maryinsky direction, were sent to Rostov-on-Don to “carry out a counter-terrorist operation against the participants in the rebellion” . They were relocated to the Rostov region on the morning of June 24th. “Currently, the fighters under the command of Apta Alaudinov and Zaindi Zingiev ensure public safety within the city of Rostov,” the TV channel reported .

Russian media outlets such as TASS and RIA Novosti have not, so far as I have been able to determine, reported any regular Russian Army formations deploying to confront Prigozhin or halt his advance on Moscow.

The most notable defensive measure taken to prevent Prigozhin from reaching Moscow appears to have been tearing up the roadways in Lipetsk, in an effort to blockade Wagner Group’s military vehicles.

In the Lipetsk region, traffic was suspended on part of the roads, in a number of sections the roadway was damaged in order to stop the passage of equipment along the routes, the regional government reports on the Telegram channel .

"Information from the headquarters of the Lipetsk region. Traffic has been suspended on some roads of regional importance. In a number of sections, the roadway has been deliberately damaged - dug up by excavators. Radical measures have been taken to completely stop the passage of vehicles along the highways," the government of the Lipetsk region said in a statement.

Pictures appearing in Russian media outlet Kommersant seem to show a greater military presence in and around Rostov-on-Don than in Moscow itself—a reality that seems somewhat counterintuitive.

This is a picture from Rostov:

While this is the situation in Moscow.

One has to wonder what would follow should Ukraine achieve a complete breakthrough and rout of Russian forces in Ukraine, succeeding in pushing the Russian military all the way back to Russia proper. If a Ukrainian force were to break through to the rear of the Russian formations, does Prigozhin advancing as far as Lipetsk mean that Russia has no interior defenses of note, and that an invading force that seized Rostov-on-Don would have almost no opposition between it and Moscow?

With Chechen units rather than regular Russian Army formations being tasked to chase Prigozhin down, these are natural questions to ponder. At a minimum, it is difficult to see how Prigozhin’s maneuvers lead to any sort of demonstration of Russian military might. If anything, Prigozhin is revealing some fundamental weaknesses in Russian military deployments.

An assessment of internal Russian weakness arguably may also be inferred from the tenor of Putin’s address to the Russian people yesterday morning, in which he accused Prigozhin of “treason”.

I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks, doing it heroically - I know, I spoke to the commanders of all directions again last night. I also appeal to those who, by deceit or threats, were dragged into a criminal adventure, pushed onto the path of a serious crime - an armed rebellion.

Putin invoked images of the collapse of the old Russian Empire in 1917—a collapse that also involved mutinies within the Russian military—thus painting a rather dire picture of the current situation.

And therefore, the actions that split our unity are, in fact, apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms, who are now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people.

It was such a blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. As a result, the tragedy of the civil war.

He made it quite clear that Prigozhin was committing treason by seizing Rostov-on-Don and marching on Moscow.

And what we are faced with is precisely a betrayal. Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason. To betray our country, our people, and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group fought and died. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, the cities and towns of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossia, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organize a rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, in the end, and surrender.

Did Prigozhin’s actions rattle Putin? Did Putin think Prigozhin meant to unseat him and take over, in a true coup d’etat?

Whatever the situation, and whatever thoughts were going through Putin’s mind, by yesterday evening, the uprising had ended as swiftly as it began.

In an unforeseen turn of events, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko intervened, and managed to negotiate an end to the uprising.

On the morning of June 24, a number of leaders of the post-Soviet space began with telephone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The head of Russia informed his colleagues from Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan about the Wagner rebellion. Later, the list of those familiar with the situation personally by Mr. Putin was replenished by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is noteworthy that all four interlocutors of the Russian president in the recent past faced mass protests and unrest in their countries. In the evening, it turned out that the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko had been negotiating all day with the founder of Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin and, as a result, was able to agree on stopping the movement of the PMC convoy to Moscow. Nevertheless, the international community continues to monitor developments in the situation

To appreciate how abrupt a reversal this was, we must consider the reported timeline.

At around 2PM Moscow time, Lithuanian Radio and Television shared an unconfirmed video clip purporting to show an aerial attack on Wagner Group as the column moved up the M4 highway towards Moscow.

At around 3:30, LRT reported that a number of special aircraft, including Putin’s own airplane, had taken off from Moscow.

The Kholod publication reports that according to the Flightradar24 service, an Il-96-300PU aircraft from the presidential flight squad took off from Moscow to St. Petersburg on Saturday afternoon. "Important Stories" notes that this aircraft has equipment for command and control of the armed forces. Another such aircraft is already in St. Petersburg. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports of his flight from Moscow and said the president "works in the Kremlin."

Along with this, there are numerous reports that private flights take off from Moscow's Vnukovo airport, on which large Russian entrepreneurs go to Turkey. This information has not yet been confirmed. The telegram channel "We can explain" claims that the richest member of the government, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, has also left Russia.

By 6:30, there were reports of “Wagnerites” in the southern part of the region around Moscow.

Unconfirmed reports citing eyewitnesses speak of "Wagnerites" in the very south of the Moscow region.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, meanwhile, declared Monday, June 26, a non-working day - "in order to minimize risks."

Troops are being drawn to the city, footage of convoys with military equipment being transferred to the capital is published on social networks.

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin’s declaration that Monday, June 26, would be a “non-working day” was also reported in Kommersant.

Not even two hours later, however, came the report that Lukashenko had negotiated a settlement with Prigozhin halting the advance on Moscow.

Lukashenka claims that he agreed with Prigozhin to stop Wagner PMC

The press service of Lukashenka claims that, in agreement with Putin, he held talks with Yevgeny Prigozhin and came to an agreement with him "on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia."

Prigozhin allegedly accepted Lukashenka's proposal "to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate the tension."

"At the moment, on the table is an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters," the press service says.

Prigozhin and the Russian authorities have not yet commented on this.

Not long after, however, Prigozhin himself confirmed that a deal had been struck, and that he was ordering Wagner forces to return to their field camps in Ukraine.

The Wagner Group private military company is returning to its “field camps,” the PMC leader Evgeny Prigozhin announced late on Friday. His units staged a mutiny overnight, seizing control of multiple military and administrative installations in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, as well as launching an advance towards Moscow.

Kremlin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirmed the arrangement, and that Moscow was closing its just-opened criminal case against Prigozhin for mounting a rebellion would be dropped.

The criminal case against the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will be dropped, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“The criminal case will be dropped and he himself will leave for Belarus. If you ask what kind of guarantee that Prigozhin will be able to leave <...>, this is the word of the President of Russia,” he said.

Peskov additionally indicated that Wagner Group soldiers who had not directly taken part in the Prigozhin’s uprising would be allowed to sign contracts to enlist in the regular Russian military, while those who did take part would not be prosecuted.

The soldiers involved in the armed rebellion that Putin had declared to be “treason” and a “stab in the back” of the Russian people just half a day earlier have been apparently let off the hook by Putin.

What is the situation in Russia at the present time? If we are being honest, it is highly unlikely that anyone knows.

Prigozhin is no longer marching on Moscow, and Putin is not pursuing Prigozhin’s arrest. Legally speaking, Prigohzin’s attempted coup, if that is indeed what it was (is it a coup when the person you claim to want repleaced is someone other than the head of the government?), has failed and has ended.

Defense Minister Shoigu was not mentioned with respect to any of the discussions Lukashenko had with Prigozhin.

There has been no mention of what were the exact inducements Lukashenko offered to Prigozhin to convince him to stand down.

In the meantime, Russia’s internal defenses have been illuminated and exposed, and very likely found wanting. If reports were accurate, Prigozhin’s mercenary forces were able to occupy Rostov-on-Don and move almost to Moscow within 24 hours. While it is a given that Rostov would almost certainly put up more of a fight against an actual invader, what would have been present to halt an invader moving up the M4 highway from Rostov to Moscow with the same speed demonstrated by Prigozhin?

The Wagner Group, one of Russia’s more successful military formations in the war in Ukraine, is effectively disbanded. While they have not been engaged in front line combat since taking Bakhmut, they were the formation that pushed Ukraine out of that city block by block. That formation is no longer a part of Russia’s forces in Ukraine. Some of its soldiers may be absorbed by the regular Russian army, but the units which had been relatively successful in Ukraine are gone.

While the forces actively engaged on the front lines in Ukraine do not appear to have been substantially altered or weakened by these events, it is difficult to see how this brief rebellion by Prigozhin does not degrade Russia’s overall fighting force to some degree going forward. Eventually the forces currently on the front lines will have to be sent to the rear to rest and refit, and the Wagner units will not be available to replace them on those front lines. Meanwhile, it is difficult to see how these events would not damage troop morale throughout the Russian Army.

Has Putin been weakened by the uprising? Quite possibly, and at a minimum it seems fair to say he does not come away from this with a stronger grip on power in the Kremlin. The Wagner Group rebelled against his authority and appears to have largely gotten away with it. That alone may embolden other units to mutiny if the war in Ukraine goes substantially against Russia, rather than being stuck in a seemingly endless stalemate along the front lines that is nothing if not eerily reminiscent of WW1-style trench warfare.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion has apparently ended, after little more than 24 hours of actual opposition. The consequences of that rebellion, of the mutiny by his Wagner Group forces, very likely have not yet even begun to unfold.