Thank you for doing this, Peter. Just now seeing it. I feel like Trump coming in after Obama pushed us much closer to socialism and the resistance and irrational hate that Trump got from the Democrats means that he had an uphill battle, so maybe he should get a little more credit for what he did accomplish? But I also feel like America is part of larger global economic reorganization and changes and it is not going to be easy to remain strong, no matter who is President. I don't think Biden is really the one running the country anyway. As far as defense spending, Trump had to increase that didn't he, because Obama decreased it if I recall correctly. The most important part of your data is that more working class and middle class people were working and wages increased. That is why people liked Trump and felt like the economy was 'better'. The bad part of the total picture is that the super rich continue to get richer no matter what happens. Have a blessed day. (My daughter is still in the hospital)
As regards how much "credit" Trump should get because of the political obstacles he faced, ultimately that is a political assessment, not a factual one. Which is not to say that it is wrong or invalid to make those arguments, just that they are subjective rather than objective arguments.
By the same token, because the goal here was to create an "apples-to-apples" comparison, this analysis very intentionally does not include 2020 and all the COVID related policies and decisions, several of which do not put Trump in any sort of good light.
My personal assessment of 2020 is that Trump did not handle the COVID "pandemic" well at all, that he was wrong to push Operation Warp Speed to rush the mRNA inoculations to market, that he was wrong to get behind mask mandates and lockdowns and all the other exemplars of pharmaceutical authoritarianism this country endured and from which this country is still recovering.
How much accountability should we demand from Donald Trump for the mRNA shots and all the rest of the Pandemic Panic lunacies? Again, that is a political question and the answers are going to be political, which is to say subjective.
Biden has not faced a national crisis on par with the Pandemic Panic in 2020, and so we really can't compare Trump's handling of that with anything Biden has done. The closest we come to any sort of basis for comparison is Biden's ill-advised and ultimately failed effort to use OSHA regs to force the inoculations on everyone.
Was Trump a better President than Biden? By the economic numbers he was, but not by a tremendous margin. He does have the virtue of being the only President in recent decades who did not start a new foreign war. In most regards Trump was demonstrably better at hewing to the mandates of the United States Constitution than either Obama or Biden has been..
Trump's supporters are wholeheartedly in his corner, and it is quite likely that Trump's base is more energized than Biden's base. The question for the fall election is which candidate will energize disaffected independents and in which direction?
I agree. And saying that, it bothers me that so many who support Trump do not seem to see the negatives of his actions in operation warp speed . I think the main issue is that many of us feel like he was the only hope .
Agree with both of you here, and praying for your daughter as well...
And, this time, if we can get Trump back into the WH/in charge, we need to push him on better choices for leadership positions, demand better agenda's for all sorts of things, especially the re-ignition of the middle class and small businesses...SMH that we can't get better choices for political leaders, yet the evil that is involved with these people and the elites whom buy/bribe them is also unbelievable...thanks for your input/much appreciated contributions!
This much is clear. If "We The People" don't make the phrase "We The People" mean something again, we are no longer a free people living in a Constitutional Republic.
This is a good comparison of the data of Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s, and you have wisely included several factors - such as private investment vs. government spending - that other economic analysts would overlook entirely. However, to assess the actual PERFORMANCE of Trump vs. Biden’s administration other variables must be included, several of which would be difficult to quantify, and data might be hard to find. Three that immediately come to my mind are:
1) How much political resistance and opposition did each President have to fight in the enactment of their economic policies? It may just be my subjective memory, but I remember Trump’s policies being fought tooth and nail by his opponents, far more that Biden’s. If there is a ‘weighting factor’ that exists to apply to our comparison, I’m not aware of it. Still, to be fair to Trump, this level of opposition needs to be considered.
2) The economic starting points of Trump’s administration vs. Biden’s we’re so different, because of the Covid lockdown years, that some kind of special analysis and weighting would have to be applied. (Some economist will write a PhD thesis on this that could have the heft of a book.) The stretch of 2022 that showed ‘flat’ improvement should have showed a pretty strong growth rate, as Covid restrictions were being lifted and economic activity resumed. To me, Biden clearly blew that opportunity.
3) Long-range vs. short-range investments of the two administrations need to be considered. Did Trump enact economic policies that would have greater long-range payoffs than Biden did? More factors that might be subjectively measured, if data can be found at all.
I’m sure you can immediately think of other variables that could be included in this comparison, but I’m not asking you to write a book. I just wanted to point out a few items that I think would weigh in Trump’s favor.
Qualitative comparisons between administrations are always relevant, especially in an election year, but, as you point out, they are hard to do objectively.
If we posit that Trump had the more challenging political environment, then the data implies that Trump would have had an even better track record on the economy.
At the same time, if we posit that the COVID madness of 2020 reshaped the landscape for Biden, then we must at least be more forgiving of Biden's track record.
If we posit both predicates, then potentially we come to the same overall conclusion as if we disregard them.
As a baseline, I prefer to not rely on such predicates. Such assumptions are a distinctly non-parsimonious mode of thinking. Such violations of Occam's Razor are generally best avoided.
Precisely, Peter, and this whole debate begs the question: Who really has the most impact on our economy/economic condition? Is it a group of people in Corp entities, like BlackRock & Vanguard, or the Elites, or Davos, WEF, or UN, or Councils on Foreign Relations types of groups, or some combination thereof??
Ultimately, it's people. When you delve into the data like I do, one thing you come to realize is how impotent the fortune 500 set really is.
That's why banks need bailouts. That's why companies "need" corporate welfare. That's why Wall Street freaks out when the Fed takes away their free money.
Main Street invariably is much more resilient, much more adaptable, and generally much tougher than Wall Street.
Main Street doesn't have government tilting the playing field in their favor. Wall Street does.
Yes, these predicates are the reasons that economists seldom agree. Once they start quibbling on subjectively-measured variables, the result is the old maxim: if you laid all the economists out in a line, they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.
And I agree, ‘the simplest explanation is the best’. Part of why you are such a great analyst is that you still to the facts.
Jesus is our hope .
Thank you for doing this, Peter. Just now seeing it. I feel like Trump coming in after Obama pushed us much closer to socialism and the resistance and irrational hate that Trump got from the Democrats means that he had an uphill battle, so maybe he should get a little more credit for what he did accomplish? But I also feel like America is part of larger global economic reorganization and changes and it is not going to be easy to remain strong, no matter who is President. I don't think Biden is really the one running the country anyway. As far as defense spending, Trump had to increase that didn't he, because Obama decreased it if I recall correctly. The most important part of your data is that more working class and middle class people were working and wages increased. That is why people liked Trump and felt like the economy was 'better'. The bad part of the total picture is that the super rich continue to get richer no matter what happens. Have a blessed day. (My daughter is still in the hospital)
Prayers for your daughter.
As regards how much "credit" Trump should get because of the political obstacles he faced, ultimately that is a political assessment, not a factual one. Which is not to say that it is wrong or invalid to make those arguments, just that they are subjective rather than objective arguments.
By the same token, because the goal here was to create an "apples-to-apples" comparison, this analysis very intentionally does not include 2020 and all the COVID related policies and decisions, several of which do not put Trump in any sort of good light.
My personal assessment of 2020 is that Trump did not handle the COVID "pandemic" well at all, that he was wrong to push Operation Warp Speed to rush the mRNA inoculations to market, that he was wrong to get behind mask mandates and lockdowns and all the other exemplars of pharmaceutical authoritarianism this country endured and from which this country is still recovering.
How much accountability should we demand from Donald Trump for the mRNA shots and all the rest of the Pandemic Panic lunacies? Again, that is a political question and the answers are going to be political, which is to say subjective.
Biden has not faced a national crisis on par with the Pandemic Panic in 2020, and so we really can't compare Trump's handling of that with anything Biden has done. The closest we come to any sort of basis for comparison is Biden's ill-advised and ultimately failed effort to use OSHA regs to force the inoculations on everyone.
Was Trump a better President than Biden? By the economic numbers he was, but not by a tremendous margin. He does have the virtue of being the only President in recent decades who did not start a new foreign war. In most regards Trump was demonstrably better at hewing to the mandates of the United States Constitution than either Obama or Biden has been..
Trump's supporters are wholeheartedly in his corner, and it is quite likely that Trump's base is more energized than Biden's base. The question for the fall election is which candidate will energize disaffected independents and in which direction?
I agree. And saying that, it bothers me that so many who support Trump do not seem to see the negatives of his actions in operation warp speed . I think the main issue is that many of us feel like he was the only hope .
Not sure I disagree with the "only hope" bit. He's a flawed candidate, was a flawed President, but right now he's the best option available
Agree with both of you here, and praying for your daughter as well...
And, this time, if we can get Trump back into the WH/in charge, we need to push him on better choices for leadership positions, demand better agenda's for all sorts of things, especially the re-ignition of the middle class and small businesses...SMH that we can't get better choices for political leaders, yet the evil that is involved with these people and the elites whom buy/bribe them is also unbelievable...thanks for your input/much appreciated contributions!
This much is clear. If "We The People" don't make the phrase "We The People" mean something again, we are no longer a free people living in a Constitutional Republic.
This is a good comparison of the data of Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s, and you have wisely included several factors - such as private investment vs. government spending - that other economic analysts would overlook entirely. However, to assess the actual PERFORMANCE of Trump vs. Biden’s administration other variables must be included, several of which would be difficult to quantify, and data might be hard to find. Three that immediately come to my mind are:
1) How much political resistance and opposition did each President have to fight in the enactment of their economic policies? It may just be my subjective memory, but I remember Trump’s policies being fought tooth and nail by his opponents, far more that Biden’s. If there is a ‘weighting factor’ that exists to apply to our comparison, I’m not aware of it. Still, to be fair to Trump, this level of opposition needs to be considered.
2) The economic starting points of Trump’s administration vs. Biden’s we’re so different, because of the Covid lockdown years, that some kind of special analysis and weighting would have to be applied. (Some economist will write a PhD thesis on this that could have the heft of a book.) The stretch of 2022 that showed ‘flat’ improvement should have showed a pretty strong growth rate, as Covid restrictions were being lifted and economic activity resumed. To me, Biden clearly blew that opportunity.
3) Long-range vs. short-range investments of the two administrations need to be considered. Did Trump enact economic policies that would have greater long-range payoffs than Biden did? More factors that might be subjectively measured, if data can be found at all.
I’m sure you can immediately think of other variables that could be included in this comparison, but I’m not asking you to write a book. I just wanted to point out a few items that I think would weigh in Trump’s favor.
Qualitative comparisons between administrations are always relevant, especially in an election year, but, as you point out, they are hard to do objectively.
If we posit that Trump had the more challenging political environment, then the data implies that Trump would have had an even better track record on the economy.
At the same time, if we posit that the COVID madness of 2020 reshaped the landscape for Biden, then we must at least be more forgiving of Biden's track record.
If we posit both predicates, then potentially we come to the same overall conclusion as if we disregard them.
As a baseline, I prefer to not rely on such predicates. Such assumptions are a distinctly non-parsimonious mode of thinking. Such violations of Occam's Razor are generally best avoided.
Precisely, Peter, and this whole debate begs the question: Who really has the most impact on our economy/economic condition? Is it a group of people in Corp entities, like BlackRock & Vanguard, or the Elites, or Davos, WEF, or UN, or Councils on Foreign Relations types of groups, or some combination thereof??
Ultimately, it's people. When you delve into the data like I do, one thing you come to realize is how impotent the fortune 500 set really is.
That's why banks need bailouts. That's why companies "need" corporate welfare. That's why Wall Street freaks out when the Fed takes away their free money.
Main Street invariably is much more resilient, much more adaptable, and generally much tougher than Wall Street.
Main Street doesn't have government tilting the playing field in their favor. Wall Street does.
Yes, these predicates are the reasons that economists seldom agree. Once they start quibbling on subjectively-measured variables, the result is the old maxim: if you laid all the economists out in a line, they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.
And I agree, ‘the simplest explanation is the best’. Part of why you are such a great analyst is that you still to the facts.
‘Stick’, not ‘still’ - darned cataracts.