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The PPI and Import/Export Price Index are sending strong disinflationary signals. But food price inflation, shelter inflation, housing costs, global inflation, and even global food price inflation are all systemic upward pressures on prices that are going to continue for some time yet.

If energy costs even just halt their recent downward trend, the CPI goes right back up.

We are being given a hope of reduced inflation going forward. We are not being given the certainty of it.

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