Yes and no--which is to say that the establishment survey is about to catch up to the household survey.
The rate of increase in the number of people not in the labor force has outpaced the growth in the labor force (and, by extension, employment) for quite some time, and the household survey recognized this back in March.
Mathematically speaking, this growth trend must eventually impact employment. It might take a few months more yet, but the correction is definitely coming.
Here in the US I have the intuition that the labor market, in which Jay Powell seems so confident, is about to turn on a dime.
Yes and no--which is to say that the establishment survey is about to catch up to the household survey.
The rate of increase in the number of people not in the labor force has outpaced the growth in the labor force (and, by extension, employment) for quite some time, and the household survey recognized this back in March.
Mathematically speaking, this growth trend must eventually impact employment. It might take a few months more yet, but the correction is definitely coming.