4 Comments

Surprised that the food bank withdrawers drive cars to the queue.

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It's not that surprising when you think about it. America as a rule is a fairly spread out country, and very few communities have markets within easy walking distance (and public transportation is only viable within the more urbanized precincts).

In many communities cars are an absolute necessity, on par with the food people get from the local food pantry.

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Here in the US I have the intuition that the labor market, in which Jay Powell seems so confident, is about to turn on a dime.

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Yes and no--which is to say that the establishment survey is about to catch up to the household survey.

The rate of increase in the number of people not in the labor force has outpaced the growth in the labor force (and, by extension, employment) for quite some time, and the household survey recognized this back in March.

Mathematically speaking, this growth trend must eventually impact employment. It might take a few months more yet, but the correction is definitely coming.

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