It really feels, that as with any area of our American economy and government, nobody knows anything. Banks are certainly betting on a government bailout, and everyone else is putting their heads in the sand. It will be an interesting time to see where this all ends.
Community banks ($1 B or less) typically do not have these problems. (Of course, they are also not run by “the smartest people in the room.”). If the big or so-called “small” banks do not destroy the entire banking system,it would be nice to see a predominantly community bank system emerge from this mess.
As a community banker (<$1B Assets), and banking regulatory expert, I agree!
Financial contagions spreads quickly, unfortunately. What I would love to see is decentralized finance in the form of community banks. They have the pre-existing transactional & human capital already.
They also know their borrowers and local market conditions much better than the big guys ever can. They can, thus, usually manage risks (i.e., allocate capital) better and more efficiently.
The big picture here is so alarming! Even though you have reassuringly explained to us the accounting mechanisms that could handle (most of) the toxicity here, I find the attitude of the banking industry appalling. I’m convinced of the ‘cynical’ view - that they are expecting to be bailed out by the government, because, come on, an entire industry of MBA Finance grads cannot be this incompetent! What an appalling mindset they have, expecting to be bailed out. Don’t they grasp that this could not only end the banking industry as we know it, but also bring down the entire economy?
The more bailouts, the faster devaluation of reserve fiat currency and planned “necessities” of UBI and CBDCs, which the uninformed will welcome from our “benevolent” overseers.
That's unlikely. The destruction of the currency makes UBI impossible, and as we're seeing in Nigeria, the loss of trust in the central bank makes a CBDC unworkable.
Impossible? So the gov / central banks can’t conjure up new digital currency for well behaved folks to earn? Seems as plausible IMO as increasing $30+ trillion in debt.
Ultimately, no, they can't. If they could Nigeria's eNaira would have stabilized that country's finances. It hasn't.
If they could China wouldn't have a money velocity of over 7 for the eCNY they have in circulation: people do not want to hold the eCNY, and that is a guarantee of future inflation.
Without a stable currency universal basic income cannot be implemented. There's no way to get ahead of the inflation that would cause.
I will defer to your impressive economic expertise on this, but also reserve the right not to be surprised if the bastards still find the “means” upon which to accomplish this.
.
And Charles Said:
“Mummy, Why Can’t I Be King Of The World” ?
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It really feels, that as with any area of our American economy and government, nobody knows anything. Banks are certainly betting on a government bailout, and everyone else is putting their heads in the sand. It will be an interesting time to see where this all ends.
Community banks ($1 B or less) typically do not have these problems. (Of course, they are also not run by “the smartest people in the room.”). If the big or so-called “small” banks do not destroy the entire banking system,it would be nice to see a predominantly community bank system emerge from this mess.
Ultimately, we need to realize that "too big to fail" is really "too big to survive. "
As a community banker (<$1B Assets), and banking regulatory expert, I agree!
Financial contagions spreads quickly, unfortunately. What I would love to see is decentralized finance in the form of community banks. They have the pre-existing transactional & human capital already.
They also know their borrowers and local market conditions much better than the big guys ever can. They can, thus, usually manage risks (i.e., allocate capital) better and more efficiently.
The big picture here is so alarming! Even though you have reassuringly explained to us the accounting mechanisms that could handle (most of) the toxicity here, I find the attitude of the banking industry appalling. I’m convinced of the ‘cynical’ view - that they are expecting to be bailed out by the government, because, come on, an entire industry of MBA Finance grads cannot be this incompetent! What an appalling mindset they have, expecting to be bailed out. Don’t they grasp that this could not only end the banking industry as we know it, but also bring down the entire economy?
The more bailouts, the faster devaluation of reserve fiat currency and planned “necessities” of UBI and CBDCs, which the uninformed will welcome from our “benevolent” overseers.
That's unlikely. The destruction of the currency makes UBI impossible, and as we're seeing in Nigeria, the loss of trust in the central bank makes a CBDC unworkable.
Impossible? So the gov / central banks can’t conjure up new digital currency for well behaved folks to earn? Seems as plausible IMO as increasing $30+ trillion in debt.
Ultimately, no, they can't. If they could Nigeria's eNaira would have stabilized that country's finances. It hasn't.
If they could China wouldn't have a money velocity of over 7 for the eCNY they have in circulation: people do not want to hold the eCNY, and that is a guarantee of future inflation.
Without a stable currency universal basic income cannot be implemented. There's no way to get ahead of the inflation that would cause.
I will defer to your impressive economic expertise on this, but also reserve the right not to be surprised if the bastards still find the “means” upon which to accomplish this.
Let's be clear: I'm not saying they aren't stupid enough to try it. I'm saying they aren't smart enough to make it work.
Tomorrow's article delves into some of this a bit more vis a vis China and the eCNY.