Brief News Matters
News Briefs For The Week Of 20 April 2025
Economics News
Buying Groceries On Credit Is Not A Good Sign
(26 April 2025) Lending Tree has released new data on “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) loans, and there are some disturbing trends:
41% of people who use BNPL loans report making at least one payment late.
23% of people who use BNPL loans report having three or more active loans.
25% of people who use BNPL loans report using them to buy groceries, an increase from 14% a year ago.
Almost have of those surveyed report having used BNPL loans at least once.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, 64% of Gen Z survey participants used BNPL loans vs 29% of Baby Boomers.
Debt is inherently a risky proposition for consumers. Credit is quite often the beginning of how people dig themselves into an economic hole from which they cannot escape.
With BNPL loans, the most common risk (aside from being in arrears) is regret. Nearly half of BNPL users report regretting having used such a loan to finance a purchase.
The growing popularity of BNPL loans reflects a rising willingness of consumers to go into debt to finance even small purchases and necessaries such as food. Given the rise in credit card debt in recent years, the growing popularity of BNPL loans is yet another indicator of rising indebtedness among American consumers.
Rising debt has never been a sign of economic health at any level.
April: Crazy But No Collapse
(25 April 2025) While Wall Street has had a rollercoaster ride for the month of April, the one thing the markets have not had has been a complete collapse.
The NASDAQ is as of the closing bell today in positive territory for the month. The Dow is the worst performer having lost just under 4% for the month, with the S&P 500 splitting the difference down under 2% for the month.
While oil prices plunged in the immediate aftermath of the Liberation Day tariffs, prices have largely stabilized. Commodities prices have done likewise.
While the final tariff rates will inevitably be an upward pressure first on producer prices then on consumer prices, at present that pressure is not pushing up oil prices or commodities’ prices. At present the net effect of the tariff threat on oil and commodity prices has been a decrease.
President Trump’s tariff threats, potential trade wars, and actual trade war with China have thus far not produced either the market meltdown or the consumer price surge Wall Street’s prognosticators have been forecasting.
Europe Service PMI Contracts. Manufacturing Expands
(23 April 2025) Not a great start for Hump Day in Europe, as the Euro Area’s overall economy continues to slip into a deflationary spiral. The Composite PMI registered a decline, as did the Services PMI. The Manufacuring PMI was the only PMI indicator which posted even a minimal increase. France and Germany posted similar PMI data.
Given Germany’s determination to somehow re-industralize, after taking numerous economic body blows via sanctions in the EU economic war with Russia, the uptick in manufacturing is definitely encouraging. The downturn in the composite and service PMIs, however, are definite recession red flags—especially since the Euro Area’s Composite PMI largely mirrors that of France and Germany.
There is a strong temptation to to attribute the rising Manufacturing numbers to a “Trump” effect—Europe would not likely be attempting this sort of economic recovery were it not for President Trump declaring his determination to restructure America’s trading relationships. Whether the re-industrialization efforts will be sufficient to offset the decline in services and keep the EU as a whole economically hale and healthy is a question very much still to be answered.
At the moment, that outlook is not promising.
Wall Street Decided To Have A Good Day
(22 April 2025) Stocks, oil, and commodities all finished up on the day’s trading.
Apparently Wall Street decided not to tantrum today.
Corporate media decided to chalk the burst of enthusiasm up to Scott Bessent admitting the obvious in a private speech: China and the US will negotiate their trade differences. This was apparently news to Wall Street, although not to anyone who has followed Donald Trump’s career and recognizes his passion for engaging in deal-making.
These are the investing geniuses managing not just hedge funds but your 401(k), which means their hysterics are what has caused any drop in the value of your 401(k).
Should Workers Expect Less Pay In The Future?
(22 April 2025) Word comes from the New York Federal Reserve that recent labor market surveys shows decreasing expectations on pay and benefits. The media calls this a “softening” labor market. It will surprise no one that I view this as signs of a deepening “jobs recession”.
Companies Are Still Investing In US
(22 April 2025) Apple, Abbot Labs, and NVidia are but a few of the major corporations announcing at least intentions to expand production (and create jobs) here in the United States. These are happening even as Wall Street retreats—proving once again that the hysteria over the Liberation Day Tariffs is just that…hysteria.
Politics News
Polls Point To Very Narrow Win For Canadian Liberals
Heading into Monday’s election, polling shows Canada’s Liberal Party with a marginal lead over the Conservative Party of Canada—marginal enough to be within the statistical margin of error and therefore a tie.
Polling firm Innovative Research shows both the Liberals and the Conservatives polling at ~38%-39%,, although the Liberals still have a regional advantage, particularly in Eastern Canada.
Liason Strategies, however, has released a poll showing the Liberals up 44% to 39%. That margin for the Liberals is statistically significant and outside the polling margin of error.
As of this writing, the Canadaian election is a tossup between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Will Canada’s next Prime Minister be Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre? We shall know in a few more days.
Schumer Says It’s Illegal To Deny Harvard Taxpayer Dollars
According to Chuck Schumer, President Trump is doing something illegal by not giving Harvard taxpayer dollars. In the world according to Schumer, not spending money at institutions which endorse, espouse and valorize the Hama terrorist group is “lawless”—that is the word he uses again and again and again.
Of course, Schumer never states what law President Trump has violated by pulling government funding away from Harvard. All he can say is that Trump is “lawless”.
Readers of this Substack by now are well familiar that when I say something is “illegal” or “lawless”, I can back it up by citing the exact statute I believe is being violated. I might be wrong on the interpretation of the statute, but if I say something is illegal it means “I’ve checked and this specific statute says you can’t do this”. When Schumer says something is illegal he’s crossing his fingers hoping and praying no one will ask him to back it up (not that corporate media would ever challenge him on that).
But we should also note Schumer’s disgusting disingenuousness on the question of anti-Semitism at Harvard. We long ago passed the point of establishing that the “pro-Palestinian protests” at universities across the country were nothing but outright advocacy for Hamas’ terrorism and for Jewish genocide. That’s been proven. That’s established fact. That’s why deporting Mahmoud Khalil and Rumesya Ozturk is not only permissible, but imperative. Asking at this late date for “evidence of anti-Semitism” at Harvard is like questioning the police arresting an axe murder covered in blood, axe in hand, standing over the body, and demanding to know what their “evidence” is that a murder was committed. Schumer’s demand for “evidence” is not serious, but sickening.
As I pointed out earlier, this is how propaganda works. These are the tactics of delegitimization that seeks to undermine the opposing side without actually having to confront ideas with ideas, or rebut facts with more facts. Media bites like this are intentional efforts by both corporate media and Democrats to undermine Trump by subterfuge rather than debating him honestly and openly. As one reader astutely noted, propaganda is what happens when the facts and evidence are not on your side.
Shumer knows the facts and evidence are not on his side, but he’s hoping you won’t find that out.
Another Federal Judge Who Is Ignorant Of Federal Law
(24 April 2025) U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly in Washington thinks that “irreparable harm” will follow if the call for documentary proof of citizenship as specified in President Trump’s Executive Order on election reform, is implemented.
Specifically, Judge Kollar-Kotelly concluded that the citizenship requirement harmed the plaintiff organizations suing against Executive Order because it would “directly harm the concrete interests of their individual members in registering to vote and having their votes counted in upcoming federal elections.”
This stance is absurd. 18 USC §611 is explicit that non-citizens are not allowed to vote in Federal elections.
Period.
End of Sentence.
End of Discussion.
Individuals who are not citizens of the United States have no concrete interest in registering to vote, since they have no vote to cast in federal elections. Individuals who are citizens of the United States have the documents to show citizenship—i.e., birth certificate, passport, et cetera.
Further, proof of citizenship is a common requirement for state identification cards and drivers licenses. Texas has such a requirement. So does Florida.
Neither state is having their ID requirements challenged in state or federal court.
How can proof of citizenship not be a burden for a state ID but be a burden for voter registration, when the state ID is a requirement for the voter registration?
Make it make sense.
Immigration News
ICE Will Dot The I’s And Cross The T’s On Student Visa Terminations
(25 April 2025) Foreign students whose visa records in the federal Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) were updated last week to indicate their visas were cancelled had their visas restored to them—for now.
ICE is being protrayed as reversing the visa cancellations in the SEVIS system without accurately notifying the individuals of the cancellation or the reason for the cancellation.
However, this is not a complete policy abonment. ICE officials told the Associated Press that ICE was developing a protocol and policy for canceling visas via SEVIS, but that tool is not yet in place—hence the restoral of the visas.
Local Judge Forgets The Law
(25 April 2025) Judge Hannah Dugan decided that it was just not nice that ICE agents came to the courthouse to enforce the law. Whoever heard of such a thing? A courthouse is supposed to be the judge’s domain, where they are the law
Only they are not the law. All any judge gets to do is say what the law is. That's it.
So when Judge Dugan decided to get in the way of ICE agents enforcing the immigration laws, they reminded her that it's a crime to do so by arresting her. According to the arresting agents, she blocked them from detaining Eduardo Flores Ruiz, an illegal alien, in her courtroom so he could slip away and evade detention.
That sort of interference is against the law, and it's against the oath every judge takes on assuming office to uphold the law.
The response of the ICE agents to that sort of interference can be summed up “FAFO”.
(Update) The affadavit filed by the FBI and ICE agents who arrested Judge Dugan makes for quite interesting reading.
According to the sworn affadavits, not only did Judge Dugan opt to “rush” Flores Ruiz’ hearing so she could get him out of the courthouse, she then escorted Flores Ruiz and his attorney out via the “jury door”, which leads to a non-public area of the courthouse. Not only was this a complete departure from Judge Dugan’s own policies and protocols, according to the affidavit, but as the state prosecutor was not accompanying them this could also be an example of ex parte communication between the judge and the defendant, which would be a violation of Rule 2.9 of Canon 2 of the ABA Model Code of Judicial Conduct.
Which makes Judge Dugan’s behavior so far off the rails “crazy train” does not even come close to describing it accurately.
(Update) Unsurprisingly, Democrats are losing their minds over the arrest. They genuinely seem unable to process that interfering when ICE is attempting to apprehend an illegal aliens is sitself a crime.
The criminal complaint leaves no room for doubt: Hannah Dugan sought to interfere with ICE agents in the lawful performance of their sworn duties. That’s a crime. That gets you arrested.
Progressives Triggered By ICE Officers Doing Their Job
(24 April 2025) Yes, Virginia, ICE can and does apprehend illegal aliens even on the steps of the county courthouse. That’s called “doing their job.”
Progressives were outraged to find ICE agents doing their job at the Albermarle County Courthouse in Charlottesville, Virginia, when they detained Teodoro Dominguez Rodriguez and one other individual, both illegal aliens. So great was their outrage that some of them attempted to get between the agents and Rodriguez and prevent the apprehension from taking place (Note: interference like that is a crime).
Any non-citizen in this country without a proper visa or proof of lawful status is by definition here illegally and is by law deportable upon the order of the Attorney General. That’s the law.
No rights were violated. No excessive force was used. An illegal alien was taken into custody to be processed for deportation, and that is all.
Judge Xinis Brings The Judicial Showdown Ever Closer
(22 April 2025) What happens when judges get the law wrong? What happens when judges overstep their authority?
We are getting very close—even scarily close—to finding out. Judge Paula Xinis, one of the judges weighing in on the government’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, completely rejected all of the government’s responses, in an 8-page order that is charitably describe as “incontinent.”.
One could argue that if the government is in the wrong, Judge Xinis’ anger is warranted. But what if the government is not wrong?
Judge Xinis, with her accusatory languages indicating she believes the government to be dealing in bad faith, is not leaving any room for the government to be right.
The judges are supposed to be neutral arbiters, stating what the law is and no more. That’s not happening. Judge Xinis, like Judge Boasberg, is decidedly not neutral. That’s a problem.
Eventually this will wind up in front of the Supreme Court, which is already under fire for their problematic order halting deportations under the AEA from Texas—which means the Supreme Court no longer enjoys the presumption of impartiality in the eyes of many.
What happens when Justice is no longer blind? When judges put their thumb on the judicial scale?
Judges Do Not Have Authority Over Alien Enemies Act Cases
(22 April 2025) U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein is clearly confused. The Supreme Court has already acknowledged in Trump v J.G.G. that the courts do not have broad powers of “judicial review” over the Alien Enemies Act. People identified as alien enemies have the right to file writs of habeas corpus to challenge the particulars of their detention and deportation, and that is all. The courts have no authority to issue broad injunctive or declaratory relief in cases involving the Alien Enemies Act. To presume otherwise would be to overturn longstanding Supreme Court precedents.
Judge Hellerstein’s orders are not valid and should not be recognized.
Democrats Going Rogue
(22 April 2025) Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari is another of the Democrats who are in El Salvador (as private citizens, not as a Congressional delegation) and actively agitating in El Salvador to pressue, in addition to the Trump Administration, El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Part of their “pressure tactics” have been to demand from Senator Marco Rubio “proof of life” for El Salvadoran national Kilmar Abrego Garcia. “Proof of life” is a term used in kidnapping and hostage situations, where hostage negotiators demand evidence that the victim is still alive. This language presumes that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was kidnapped or is being held hostage, when it is absolutely established that he was deported and is being detained in El Salvador’s CECOT prison, where he was recently seen enjoying drinks with Senator Chris Van Hollen.
Not satisfied with herself going rogue in this fashion, she’s calling for MORE Representatives to join the four already in El Salvador.
Yassamin Ansari and her associates are not a Congressonal delegation and they are not in El Salvador in any official capacity. How they expect to “pressure” the US Government, which as of this writing is located in Washington DC., in the United States of America, from El Salvador, is something they have not seen fit to explain at this time.
Congressman Robert Garcia Is “Organizing” IN El Salvador
(22 April 2025) Note what Congressman Robert Garcia is saying. He is “organizing” while actually in El Salvador. He is meeting with “advocates”—El Salvadoran nationals, perhaps?—to bring political pressure on not just the US government but also the El Salvadoran government so that the alien enemies sent to CECOT by the Trump Administration are all released.
So there is no misunderstanding, this is the transcript of the key statements (courtesy of Substack’s autotranscribe feature):
We have met now with the U.S. Embassy here, the ambassador. We're meeting with advocates on the ground who are organizing here in El Salvador. We've talked to Abrigo Garcia's family, which is heartbreaking. And more importantly, we're here to raise awareness that Kilmer needs to come home, need to build support here in El Salvador, but also in the United States.
Someone should remind the good Congressman that Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an El Salvadoran nations, is “home”.
What in the Nine Circles of Hell is a sitting US Congressman doing advocating in a foreign country against the government of that country?
WSJ Calls For Unlimited Ability To Import Workers
(22 April 2025) Under the guise of praising Donald Trump for finally securing the southern border, the Op-Ed geniuses at the Wall Street Journal are calling for Trump to embrace “immigration reform”, including lifting caps on H-1B visas. This ignores the ongoing jobs recession we have in this country, as well as the H-1B visa’s lengthy history of corruption and abuse.
Immigration reform is a good idea, but sensible immigration reform starts with ending, not expanding, the H-1B visa program.
Democrats Have Chosen Kilmar Abrego Garcia As The Hill They Will Die On
(22 April 2025) For better or worse, the Democrats are making a cause celebre out of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the illegal alien with a record of domestic violence and ties to MS13. They believe there is a case to be made for due process and the rule of law—all while ignoring all the “due process” Abrego Garcia already had, and which calls for his removal.
China News
Somebody’s Talking
While Xi Jinping and the Beijing government continue to deny that talks are ongoing with the Trump Administration over tariffs and the Trump Trade War, Korean outlet JoongAng has released photos presumably of an official within China’s Ministry of Finance entering the Treasury Department early yesterday morning.
It would appear that “somebody” is talking with the Trump Administration about “something”. Are these talks “official” from the perspective of the CCP? Probably not.
However, unless the photos are not what they are claimed to be, President Trump is not wrong that the US and China are having some level of discussions—and with the trade war occupying everyone’s attention that would be the most likely topic for any Chinese official to be talking to anyone over at Treasury.
Trade War Is Not Just Over Tariffs
(24 April 2025) Thailand offers up a grim reminder that trade issues are not merely about tariffs, or who can produce goods the cheapest. Quality matters, and can be a matter of life or death.
That point was driven home on March 28, when the newly constructed State Audit Office building collapsed in the 7.7 magnitude earthquake which struck the region. Three people died and at least 68 people were injured in the building collapse.
Subsequent testing of steel made by Chinese steel producer Xin Ke Yuan Steel taken from the collapsed building have failed structural integrity tests. This would seem to confirm early statements made by Suriyachai Rawiwan, Director of the Bangkok Fire and Rescue Department, that the building’s structure was already shaky and unstable.
No country can make a habit of importing substandard steel for use in its construction no matter how low the cost. For its part, Thailand must now decide how much Chinese steel it wants to import, knowing that steel could be defective.
With Xi Jinping jonesing Southeast Asia for allies against the US in the Trumpian Trade War, such news could not come at a worst time.
Talking? Not Talking? Talking About Talking?
(24 April 2025) Donald Trump says China and the US are talking and “actively” discussing tariffs. Beijing says China and the US are not talking.
This morning, Wall Street decided today it would believe Donald Trump, and has been rising throughout the morning in spite of China throwing shade on the prospect of tariff talks.
There is some logic for this. With a trade war, China’s exports to the United States are drastically reduced, an outcome that will cause short term economic pain in both the United States and China. The best outcomes without economic pain can only come through diplomacy and trade talks.
Moreover, while being seen as actively engaged in diplomacy is a stance President Trump clearly believes (with reason) is a net positive for him, the potential for that to represent a loss of face may very well mean that stance publicly is a net negative for China. Thus while the talks may not be at a level to qualify as “talks”—in the peculiar argot only international diplomacy can create—it would be quite remarkable (and disturbing) if there was not some form of dialog taking place regarding the trade war.
Will there be a negotiated end to the trade war soon? Hopefully, but we will not know that until it happens.
Can China Boost Domestic Demand To Win Trade War?
(22 April 2025) Chinese media certainly talks a good game when it comes to boosting domestic consumption. From boasting about infrastructure spending and technology investment, presumably it’s all about increasing domestic demand. Never mind that, according to China’s own CPI numbers, domestic demand is not increasing, or that wages will have to double or triple to support American levels of consumption.
Russia News
Zelenskyy Continues To Push For Total Ukrainian Victory
Despite President Trump’s repeated assurances that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is “close”, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is reported as continuing to promote a goal of total Ukrainian victory.
Zelenskyy has been pointing out that Ukraine’s constitution declares the countries borders to be “indivisible and inviolable”, and that therefore he cannot concede any territory to Russia. As a matter of constitutional interpretation, Zelenskyy has a point. Article 2 of the Ukrainian constitution does not leave much in the way of wiggle room on the matter.
The reality on the ground has been that Ukraine’s borders have been grotesquely violated, and three years of stalemated attritional war have not restored Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Constitutions do not win wars. Soldiers and supplies win wars. Ukraine is running out of the first and President Trump is disinclined to keep providing the latter.
Ukraine needs a peace deal today, regardless of what its constitution commands.
Snatching War From The Jaws Of Peace
(24 April 2025) Only Vladimir Putin could erase all the diplomatic leverage he had built up during President Trump’s to-date fruitless efforts to broker a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. A single missle strike on Kyiv not only killed 9 civilians, but likely annihilated any hope even for a ceasefire any time soon.
This comes as President Trump’s negotiators unveiled a peace framework that would allow Russia to keep most of the Ukrainian territory it has occupied, including Crimea.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is reported as saying that Putin “only wants to continue the war”. The missile strike certainly makes that assessment difficult to rebut.
(Update) For its part, the Kremlin has not confirmed to Russian media that there was an attack on Kyiv, with Kremlin spokesperson Dimitry Peskov confirming only that Russia continues to attack “military and near-military targets”.
I have stated repeatedly my stance that peace is in everyone’s best interests, and that both Putin and Volodomyr Zelenskyy need to get over themselves, sit down at a negotiating table, and hammer out a lasting peace deal. My stance on this has not changed.
But a missle strike on the Ukrainian capital which demolishes civilian structures and claims civilian lives certainly makes achieving that peace deal considerably more difficult and considerably less likely.
Given the damage this war is inflicting on the whole of Europe, no peace is the worst outcome for all sides, including Russia.
No Peace Yet For Ukraine
Donald Trump is not happy with Volodomyr Zelenskyy.
After Zelenskyy rejected a Trump-proposed peace plan whch would see Russia retain control over at least the Crimea, and possibly that portion of eastern Ukraine already occupied by Russia, President Trump took to Truth Social to blast Zelensky, pointing out the awkward reality that Ukraine did not do much of anything to fight for Crimea until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Ceasefire?
(23 April 2025) Has there been a breakthrough in President Trump’s diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine?
Potentially. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is saying he is prepared to negotiate with Russia over an end to the war, provided Russia agrees to a total ceasefire first.
That would be another step forward, and if serious talks did happen that would be a significant one.
However, that there would be negotiations is itself no guarantee the negotiations would be successful. Several of Putin’s declared positions, such as a reduction in NATO forces in countries “close” to Russia and no NATO troops in Ukraine, are likely unworkable even if they were to be acceptable. Someone is going to have to be the security guarantor for Ukraine, and Russia is disqualified from being that guarantor on account of being the invader. The countries with troops able to fill that role are primarily NATO troops.
(Update) Additionally, we need to recognize that there are conflicting reports about Zelenskyy's actual willingness to negotiate, as Breitbart is reporting that he is rejecting a framework proposed by Trump's negotiators and which Putin has supposedly expressed willingness to consider.
As with so much of the reporting on the war in Ukraine, separating the facts from the narratives is a problematic exercise.
Should we be hopeful that a peace deal is near at hand? Not really. Getting the parties to the negotating table is a big step, but there are still a lot of steps after that to complete before a lasting peace can be had.
Middle East News
Massive Explosion At Bandar Abbas Port In Iran
(26 April 2025) Iran’s largest commercial port, the Shahid Rajaei facility at Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz, has been rocked by a massive explosion, with at least 5 dead and over 700 injured.
It has been reported that the port has been flagged with multiple safety violations in the past.
It is also being reported that the explosion has been linked to a shipment of an ingredient used in solid rocket fuel, which likely had been mishandled.
While no indications of sabotage are being reported as of yet, and this presents as a tragic but relatively ordinary industrial accident, there is no escaping the inevitable geopolitical context of it happening against a backdrop of nascent talks between the United States and Iran over the latter’s nuclear weapons program.
Unsurprisingly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran’s security forces are at a heightened state of readiness as a result of the explosion.
It perhaps is also worth noting that Israel was accused of a major cyberattack on that same port in 2020.