Economically as well as geopolitically, Donald Trump has torn up the playbook. He is in every aspect an agent of change, and even a chaotic agent of change. That makes prediction and prognostication an exercise in futility.
It is quite possible that President Trump’s trade war threats will cause higher prices at least for a time here in the US. If those threats go off the rails they may result in an extended period of inflation. If they work perfectly they may result in bringing consumer price inflation down below 2% for every good and service imaginable.
We are not going to know which of these possibilities will become realities until they do.
Links & Sources
Consumer Price Index Summary: https://archive.ph/X7kZG
Producer Price Index Summary: https://archive.ph/mgriw
“Inflation Rising”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec
Headline vs Core Inflation, Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva
Headline vs Core Inflation, Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve
Energy Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG8p
Food Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCyZ
Shelter Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG99
Durable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3D
Nondurable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3u
Service Price Inflaton: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DGa1
“U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in February”: https://archive.ph/794j5
“US inflation cooled in February, but Trump’s tariff plans and trade war loom”: https://archive.ph/4t1on
“Inflation eased in February, but it’s still too close for comfort”: https://archive.ph/2Uvyy
InflationNow Nowcast, Cleveland Federal Reserve: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
EU Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/inflation-rate
Japan Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi
Canada Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi
Mexico Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/inflation-cpi
China Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi
Copper Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper
Lumber Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
Wheat Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
Commodity Price Indices (BarChart): https://tinyurl.com/6bmre52s
Oil Futures: https://tinyurl.com/4mez5nnv
RBOB Gasoline Futures: https://tinyurl.com/2wfkmama
PPI For Final Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEKf
PPI For Final Demand - Energy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DELi
PPI For Final Demand - Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Etts
PPI For Final Demand - Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ett4
PPI For Final Demand - Food: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEL7
“Dow slides and S&P enters correction territory as Trump’s trade war escalates”: https://archive.ph/NZaWJ
“Stocks tumble on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 into a 10% correction”: https://archive.ph/KAejo
“Does Anyone Have The Truth About Trump's Tariffs?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/does-anyone-have-the-about-trumps
“Is Donald Trump Giving Peace A Chance?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/is-donald-trump-giving-peace-a-chance
“DOGE Is Not Telling Us Anything New. That’s The Problem”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/doge-is-not-telling-us-anything-new
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