While we may see further disinflation and perhaps even deflation in the future, we may also see rising inflation. Perhaps the one thing we should enjoy about the March inflation data is that it is the last month where we are likely to have a clear picture of either deflation, disinflation, or inflation.
For better or for worse the Liberation Day tariffs are now part of the economic and geopolitical landscape. For better or worse we will be dealing with their impacts from April onward.
For better or worse, we won’t know what those impacts will be until they happen.
Welcome to “interesting times”!
Links And Sources
Consumer Price Index Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/1BJXL
“Cooling Inflation Shows Trump’s Disruptive Impact”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/cooling-inflation-shows-trumps-disruptive
“Apocalypse Maybe”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/apocalypse-maybe
Donald J. Trump Agenda 47: https://web.archive.org/web/20250324174846/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform
Headline and Core CPI Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve
Headline and Core CPI Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva
Energy Price Inflation Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG8p
Energy Price Inflation Year On Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0hm
Food Price Inflation Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCyZ
Foor Price Inflation Year On Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0jb
“Trump Effect: Americans See First Price Relief in Years”: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/trump-effect-americans-see-first-price-relief-in-years/
“US consumer prices unexpectedly fall in March”: https://archive.ph/NrGF2#selection-1217.0-1217.108
“US inflation cooled to a six-month low in March, but tariff pressures are quickly mounting“: https://archive.ph/TvZye#selection-3091.13-3091.286
“Promises Made, Promises Kept: Consumer Prices Fell In March, Defying Predictions of Tarifflation: https://archive.ph/0Vqa5#selection-1043.0-1043.146
Egg Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEk
Beef Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZET
Chicken Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEW
Pork Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZHQ
Bread Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFd
Potato Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFS
Lettuce Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFZ
Milk Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZG7
Cheese Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZHu
Daily Oil Prices for March (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/3avn7f5u
Daily Commodity Price Indices For March (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/524uje9n
Daily Gasoline Futures Prices For March: https://tinyurl.com/46x4jbeu
EIA Weekly Gasline Prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFv
Housing Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG99
Service Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DGa1
Nondurable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3u
Durable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3D
“Inflation Rising”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec
“Commodities Dropped On Tariff Noise”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-107151460
“Stocks, Commodities Surge On Tariff Pause”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-107494878
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