My gas bill for this month IN AUGUST the hottest month of the year is twice what it was at the same time last year. Meanwhile, for the second year in a row my house payment went up —last year $60 and this year $80 … because of taxes on my home value which seems nice if you’re thinking to sell but who the hell wants to “upgrade” or even downgrade to a house that will not only be overpriced but then payment doubled by an awful interest rate? I went damn near 20 years without having my taxes increase like this. If you ever want to know why rent is going up look no further than the insane increases in property taxes. I’m very lucky to be able to afford these increases but worry for my neighbors who very well may not be in the same place financially. I look for a new housing crash to occur making 2008 look like child’s play. Then the oligarchs will truly own a large percentage of homes right here in the USA.
I'll respectfully stay out out of the political recommendations, not my country and all that.😉
But it is interesting to note- this phenomenon is occurring in lots of other countries as well.😐🤔
Now I've been pondering it almost as long as I've been reading your stack, and I can only surmise:
A) consumers and governments to are completely inept and oblivious to the situation and buying as normal.🤔
B) the consumers know we are in a global recession and are trying to put the brakes on their spending, but government are still spending like it's 2020, and denying it, so inflation😐.
C) the government is making every decision known to fiscal policy, economic science, and any joe/Jill who knows how to balance a checkbook/budget app, to purposely BREAK the financial system intentionally.🤨
In talking to people, I'm pretty sure b is occurring, but I personally think that c is the option.
As for media- they are towing the party line because they have been either a) told to from higher pay grades, or b) no one likes to be the bearer or bad news, so they are fingers crossed that the parents will step in an say the awful out loud for them😉🤨 given the level of maturity in media these days....🤔🤔🤦♀️🤦♀️
I don't believe any government is purposefully trying to break the financial system. Frankly I doubt there's anyone in any government anywhere that even fully understands the global financial system.
I have no doubt there are those in governments around the world who are not above using currency manipulations to advance their own power agendas. Perversely, that multiple governments are likely doing the same thing at more or less the same time is probably what has kept their shenanigans from blowing up in their face thus far. Everyone has essentially bought into the same fiat currency lies and so now all governments need to keep the system going or face a perfect storm of financial system collapse.
What is going to finally bring the system down is when enough governments make the same countercyclical mistakes in their currency manipulations at approximately the same time. We got a taste of this during the GFC when first the Fed and then the ECB both raised rates into a sputtering housing market in the US and a recession in Europe, triggering cascading margin calls everywhere.
With the global derivatives markets larger now than they were right before the GFC, when the cascade reaction gets triggered, I would not count on any government or central bank being able to pump enough currency into the system to prevent total collapse.
Yes - what’s going to hit first, the Financial Singularity, when we have a total global financial collapse? Or the outbreak of WW3?
I try to look for optimistic possibilities, but the sheer weight of everything hanging over our heads sometimes makes that very difficult. Jeffrey Sachs, being interviewed yesterday by Tucker Carlson, mentioned a new book out, “Nuclear War: a Scenario”. He described it as ‘chilling’. I went to reserve a copy on the library’s website and there were already 211 people waiting to read it. Not a good sign, when that many people are sensing imminent demise.
But hey, maybe AI will harness fusion power, or figure out a super cheap way to desalinate the oceans while simultaneously cleaning up all the plastics in it. Artificial Intelligence could yet solve a lot of our problems - if it doesn’t exterminate us first!
As far as desalinization of sea water so folks can drink it, the challenges aren't about cost but energy. The amount of energy required to desalinate at scale exceed that required for the United States to go all in on EVs.
I suspect it won't much matter which comes first, as the Financial Singularity is likely to trigger WW3, and WW3 will certainly trigger the Financial Singularity.
Interestingly enough, the nuclear scenario might not come to pass. There is a lot of speculation swirling around about whether Russia's nuclear arsenal even works, and if it doesn't then the scenarios which would normally trigger a Russian first strike on NATO will instead result in a sudden coup d'etat within the Kremlin. China has not been doing any nuclear saber rattling, so its hard to see a scenario coming about where they launch first.
Would NATO launch a nuclear first strike? Under the right circumstances, absolutely. But that would entail Russia prevailing in a conventional war with NATO, and given how things have transpired in Ukraine that seems a not likely scenario--Russian attrition tactics work because Ukraine does not have local air superiority, but Russia has not been able to establish local air superiority either.
With or without a nuclear strike, however, if either Israel-Hamas or Ukraine goes global, or if China invades Taiwan (which automatically goes global), just the act of forcing countries to line up on one side or the other is going to rip apart the global financial system--at which point that quadrillion in derivatives comes into play.
China and/or Russia might even hope to precipitate the Singularity, thinking their currencies can survive. They will, however, be mistaken. The ruble and the yuan are as much fiat currencies as the dollar, and neither Putin nor Xi Jinping is prepared to make the economic adjustments needed to backstop their currencies with gold (Putin can't do that and finance his war in Ukraine, while Xi can't do that while trying to stimulate the Chinese economy). Which means when the Singularity comes and the dollar colllapses, ALL currencies plummet to zero.
At that point terms like "civilizational collapse" start to apply.
You have absolutely THE best mind, Peter. I love hearing your thoughts on all topics!
The hope I cling to is the fact that the future is seldom what you expect it to be. When I was an engineering student at the University of Minnesota, there was an actual club devoted to figuring out the ways that war with the USSR would play out. The hours when the club met conflicted with my work schedule, so I didn’t attend, but a friend of mine did. He told me how they’d figure, okay, if Russia invades Poland here, then NATO would counterattack this way at this point, and so on. Many of the club members were ROTC, so they were serious about figuring out how to win in different military scenarios. Many of the scenarios went nuclear; none, of course, ended well. Anyways, after postulating dozens of ways that war, including WW3, could happen, what actually did transpire? The USSR just rotted from within and effectively self-destructed! None of the military authors I read, none of the expert global analysts, virtually NO one (except Ayn Rand) saw it coming. All that worrying about the Cold War going hot never happen. (Yet.)
So that’s my hope - that something completely unexpected will happen to save civilization. It wouldn’t surprise me if you, Peter, see what’s evolving before anyone else does. And thanks in advance for that!
Bingo! This is just the kind of analysis that I wish Trump’s campaign had, Peter. The MSM is clueless and spinning data to support their left-biased agenda. Grrr.
The average Joe needs to see that it’s not just him canceling the family’s vacation, canceling streaming services, paring back charitable donations, no longer going out for dinner, and other belt-tightening measures. It’s the majority of the country. I’m watching restaurants close, stores liquidate, and whole retail neighborhoods go dark. The MSM continues to blame everything on ‘Covid’, which is such a cop-out of a simplification. The bigger picture is that the ENTIRE result of the Biden administration has been decline!
Voters: it’s not just you! The economy, the culture, the prospects for our nation’s future are in peril. Vote for change. Vote Trump!
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My gas bill for this month IN AUGUST the hottest month of the year is twice what it was at the same time last year. Meanwhile, for the second year in a row my house payment went up —last year $60 and this year $80 … because of taxes on my home value which seems nice if you’re thinking to sell but who the hell wants to “upgrade” or even downgrade to a house that will not only be overpriced but then payment doubled by an awful interest rate? I went damn near 20 years without having my taxes increase like this. If you ever want to know why rent is going up look no further than the insane increases in property taxes. I’m very lucky to be able to afford these increases but worry for my neighbors who very well may not be in the same place financially. I look for a new housing crash to occur making 2008 look like child’s play. Then the oligarchs will truly own a large percentage of homes right here in the USA.
A complete dissection of all the pressures pushing prices higher would be a fairly lengthy book project.
However, to your observation about taxes, we can fairly say that government intervention in the marketplace is a root cause of it all
Which was I argued at the time COVID lockdowns were all the rage that they would end badly.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/destroying-society-is-no-way-to-save
We are going to be paying for that lunacy for years if not decades to come.
I'll respectfully stay out out of the political recommendations, not my country and all that.😉
But it is interesting to note- this phenomenon is occurring in lots of other countries as well.😐🤔
Now I've been pondering it almost as long as I've been reading your stack, and I can only surmise:
A) consumers and governments to are completely inept and oblivious to the situation and buying as normal.🤔
B) the consumers know we are in a global recession and are trying to put the brakes on their spending, but government are still spending like it's 2020, and denying it, so inflation😐.
C) the government is making every decision known to fiscal policy, economic science, and any joe/Jill who knows how to balance a checkbook/budget app, to purposely BREAK the financial system intentionally.🤨
In talking to people, I'm pretty sure b is occurring, but I personally think that c is the option.
As for media- they are towing the party line because they have been either a) told to from higher pay grades, or b) no one likes to be the bearer or bad news, so they are fingers crossed that the parents will step in an say the awful out loud for them😉🤨 given the level of maturity in media these days....🤔🤔🤦♀️🤦♀️
I don't believe any government is purposefully trying to break the financial system. Frankly I doubt there's anyone in any government anywhere that even fully understands the global financial system.
I have no doubt there are those in governments around the world who are not above using currency manipulations to advance their own power agendas. Perversely, that multiple governments are likely doing the same thing at more or less the same time is probably what has kept their shenanigans from blowing up in their face thus far. Everyone has essentially bought into the same fiat currency lies and so now all governments need to keep the system going or face a perfect storm of financial system collapse.
What is going to finally bring the system down is when enough governments make the same countercyclical mistakes in their currency manipulations at approximately the same time. We got a taste of this during the GFC when first the Fed and then the ECB both raised rates into a sputtering housing market in the US and a recession in Europe, triggering cascading margin calls everywhere.
With the global derivatives markets larger now than they were right before the GFC, when the cascade reaction gets triggered, I would not count on any government or central bank being able to pump enough currency into the system to prevent total collapse.
Yes - what’s going to hit first, the Financial Singularity, when we have a total global financial collapse? Or the outbreak of WW3?
I try to look for optimistic possibilities, but the sheer weight of everything hanging over our heads sometimes makes that very difficult. Jeffrey Sachs, being interviewed yesterday by Tucker Carlson, mentioned a new book out, “Nuclear War: a Scenario”. He described it as ‘chilling’. I went to reserve a copy on the library’s website and there were already 211 people waiting to read it. Not a good sign, when that many people are sensing imminent demise.
But hey, maybe AI will harness fusion power, or figure out a super cheap way to desalinate the oceans while simultaneously cleaning up all the plastics in it. Artificial Intelligence could yet solve a lot of our problems - if it doesn’t exterminate us first!
As far as desalinization of sea water so folks can drink it, the challenges aren't about cost but energy. The amount of energy required to desalinate at scale exceed that required for the United States to go all in on EVs.
So, AI needs to master fusion energy first. Get on it, ChatGPT!
I suspect it won't much matter which comes first, as the Financial Singularity is likely to trigger WW3, and WW3 will certainly trigger the Financial Singularity.
Interestingly enough, the nuclear scenario might not come to pass. There is a lot of speculation swirling around about whether Russia's nuclear arsenal even works, and if it doesn't then the scenarios which would normally trigger a Russian first strike on NATO will instead result in a sudden coup d'etat within the Kremlin. China has not been doing any nuclear saber rattling, so its hard to see a scenario coming about where they launch first.
Would NATO launch a nuclear first strike? Under the right circumstances, absolutely. But that would entail Russia prevailing in a conventional war with NATO, and given how things have transpired in Ukraine that seems a not likely scenario--Russian attrition tactics work because Ukraine does not have local air superiority, but Russia has not been able to establish local air superiority either.
With or without a nuclear strike, however, if either Israel-Hamas or Ukraine goes global, or if China invades Taiwan (which automatically goes global), just the act of forcing countries to line up on one side or the other is going to rip apart the global financial system--at which point that quadrillion in derivatives comes into play.
China and/or Russia might even hope to precipitate the Singularity, thinking their currencies can survive. They will, however, be mistaken. The ruble and the yuan are as much fiat currencies as the dollar, and neither Putin nor Xi Jinping is prepared to make the economic adjustments needed to backstop their currencies with gold (Putin can't do that and finance his war in Ukraine, while Xi can't do that while trying to stimulate the Chinese economy). Which means when the Singularity comes and the dollar colllapses, ALL currencies plummet to zero.
At that point terms like "civilizational collapse" start to apply.
You have absolutely THE best mind, Peter. I love hearing your thoughts on all topics!
The hope I cling to is the fact that the future is seldom what you expect it to be. When I was an engineering student at the University of Minnesota, there was an actual club devoted to figuring out the ways that war with the USSR would play out. The hours when the club met conflicted with my work schedule, so I didn’t attend, but a friend of mine did. He told me how they’d figure, okay, if Russia invades Poland here, then NATO would counterattack this way at this point, and so on. Many of the club members were ROTC, so they were serious about figuring out how to win in different military scenarios. Many of the scenarios went nuclear; none, of course, ended well. Anyways, after postulating dozens of ways that war, including WW3, could happen, what actually did transpire? The USSR just rotted from within and effectively self-destructed! None of the military authors I read, none of the expert global analysts, virtually NO one (except Ayn Rand) saw it coming. All that worrying about the Cold War going hot never happen. (Yet.)
So that’s my hope - that something completely unexpected will happen to save civilization. It wouldn’t surprise me if you, Peter, see what’s evolving before anyone else does. And thanks in advance for that!
Bingo! This is just the kind of analysis that I wish Trump’s campaign had, Peter. The MSM is clueless and spinning data to support their left-biased agenda. Grrr.
The average Joe needs to see that it’s not just him canceling the family’s vacation, canceling streaming services, paring back charitable donations, no longer going out for dinner, and other belt-tightening measures. It’s the majority of the country. I’m watching restaurants close, stores liquidate, and whole retail neighborhoods go dark. The MSM continues to blame everything on ‘Covid’, which is such a cop-out of a simplification. The bigger picture is that the ENTIRE result of the Biden administration has been decline!
Voters: it’s not just you! The economy, the culture, the prospects for our nation’s future are in peril. Vote for change. Vote Trump!
Yes, vote Trump and hope there is something left for him to work on!
You know, a dying party always robs anything that's left, on the way out the door!
You’re right, Edwin! All the more reason to hurry up and save our nation before it’s looted and gutted.