You discuss the market for Russian oil and refined products being restricted if the price cap holds firm (ie if Brent doesn't rise too much). What's to stop these being laundered through China, India etc at a markup to embargo obeying countries?
As for Europe and the other OECD nations weaning themselves from Russian oil, this can only happen if they find replacements from other oil producers (the green divestment fantasy will not happen). This would only occur by these nations driving up the price of their oil purchases which must drive up Brent and cause shortfalls for other nations. These poorer nations will then buy Russian oil and refined products (directly or laundered) to supply their needs at affordable prices. The only scenario I can see for demand for Russia products collapsing is a worldwide recession crushing general demand.
You discuss the market for Russian oil and refined products being restricted if the price cap holds firm (ie if Brent doesn't rise too much). What's to stop these being laundered through China, India etc at a markup to embargo obeying countries?
As for Europe and the other OECD nations weaning themselves from Russian oil, this can only happen if they find replacements from other oil producers (the green divestment fantasy will not happen). This would only occur by these nations driving up the price of their oil purchases which must drive up Brent and cause shortfalls for other nations. These poorer nations will then buy Russian oil and refined products (directly or laundered) to supply their needs at affordable prices. The only scenario I can see for demand for Russia products collapsing is a worldwide recession crushing general demand.