"Curiously, small banks have still seen their deposit levels increase, thereby contributing to the imbalance between large and small institutions".
I'd like to know by what percent, they have increased and whether it correlates with the loss from the big banks or is slightly less?🤔🤔🤔😉
Frankly I'm hoping it's an indication that people are becoming more aware of the looming Financial crisis (still tracking right on schedule btw😉), and the BIS, IMF and WEF plans, and are taking steps as individuals to support local institutions, keep cash alive and reject the larger banks, as per financial recommendations by Catherine A Fitts, and others.😉
I'd like to think so but I'm not holding my breathe.😐
However, small bank deposits bottomed out by March 29, and began rising afterwards. From March 29 forward, small bank deposits have risen 1.9%, while large bank deposits have declined 2%.
Understand👍Or could it be the smaller banks, with the higher commercial portfolios are simply "swapping" debt, with loans from big banks? Sorry, im not a finance person.
'Scuse my ignorance, but can we speculate on something for a second? Purely hypothetically speaking😉
Can a banking crash occur if smaller banks survive? Is it possible for smaller banks to "separate" so to speak?
We're talking about bank deposits, so by definition loans are off the table. When we say "deposits" we're talking about your checking account, your savings account, your CDs, et cetera. Money of yours that you give to the bank to hold.
The CRE question is also a curiosity--and I don't pretend to understand the full dynamics in play. However, CRE defaults RATES are the highest among the 100 largest banks, and lowest among other banks. CRE loans themselves are predominantly made by the banks NOT in the list of the 25 largest banks.
Obviously, there is some overlap here: 75 of the 100 largest banks are, when assessing deposits and loan books, "small" banks. However, even with that we are still left with a conundrum and a correlation: the larger the bank the higher the CRE default rate. This implies that smaller banks are doing superior due diligence, monitoring the loans better, and maintaining better relationships with the loan recipient so as to be able to resolve issues before they reach the point of default. Larger banks are just not having as much success with the due diligence piece, and everything else falls apart because of that.
Which leads to another issue and potentially a significant bit of corruption by the Fed and certainly by the corporate media.
Silicon Valley Bank was seized by regulators on March 10. On March 8, the "small" banks had seen their deposits fall year to date by 0.5%. "Large" banks had seen their deposits fall by 3%. By March 15, the "small" banks had lost 2.9% of deposits year to date, while the "large" banks saw their deposits only down 2% year to date. In the wake of the SVB collapse the large banks increased their deposits by a full percentage point of their opening year figure, while "small" banks lost 1.4% of their deposits. Throughout that week the media was talking up how it was the "small" banks that were most at risk--at the time SVB was the 14th largest bank in the US. First Republic was either 15 or 16 on that list. Both were firmly within the 25 largest bank list.
Why, then, all the hullabaloo over how "small" and "regional" banks were at risk? Why use obviously deceptive language like that?
Can small banks survive even if large banks crash? Yes. As long as there is a source of liquidity to keep the bank operating, there is no reason for a widespread contagion effect
Ahh. You've definitely clarified that for me. And as you pointed raised more questions!😉 thank you for taking the time.
Yes the media's obsfucation re SVB and FN, made me think that it was more a case that someone wanted SVB devalued enough to enable a cheap purchase or a policy change re bailouts. BTJMO, I'm a suspicious sort these days😉
"Curiously, small banks have still seen their deposit levels increase, thereby contributing to the imbalance between large and small institutions".
I'd like to know by what percent, they have increased and whether it correlates with the loss from the big banks or is slightly less?🤔🤔🤔😉
Frankly I'm hoping it's an indication that people are becoming more aware of the looming Financial crisis (still tracking right on schedule btw😉), and the BIS, IMF and WEF plans, and are taking steps as individuals to support local institutions, keep cash alive and reject the larger banks, as per financial recommendations by Catherine A Fitts, and others.😉
I'd like to think so but I'm not holding my breathe.😐
I'm leery of making the direct connection without more substantive data, but that may be exactly what's happening.
From the start of the year, small bank deposits have declined 1.9%, while large bank deposits have declined 4.3%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18FDi
However, small bank deposits bottomed out by March 29, and began rising afterwards. From March 29 forward, small bank deposits have risen 1.9%, while large bank deposits have declined 2%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18FDE
Is the outflow from one the inflow to another? That is one possibility.
Understand👍Or could it be the smaller banks, with the higher commercial portfolios are simply "swapping" debt, with loans from big banks? Sorry, im not a finance person.
'Scuse my ignorance, but can we speculate on something for a second? Purely hypothetically speaking😉
Can a banking crash occur if smaller banks survive? Is it possible for smaller banks to "separate" so to speak?
We're talking about bank deposits, so by definition loans are off the table. When we say "deposits" we're talking about your checking account, your savings account, your CDs, et cetera. Money of yours that you give to the bank to hold.
The CRE question is also a curiosity--and I don't pretend to understand the full dynamics in play. However, CRE defaults RATES are the highest among the 100 largest banks, and lowest among other banks. CRE loans themselves are predominantly made by the banks NOT in the list of the 25 largest banks.
Obviously, there is some overlap here: 75 of the 100 largest banks are, when assessing deposits and loan books, "small" banks. However, even with that we are still left with a conundrum and a correlation: the larger the bank the higher the CRE default rate. This implies that smaller banks are doing superior due diligence, monitoring the loans better, and maintaining better relationships with the loan recipient so as to be able to resolve issues before they reach the point of default. Larger banks are just not having as much success with the due diligence piece, and everything else falls apart because of that.
Which leads to another issue and potentially a significant bit of corruption by the Fed and certainly by the corporate media.
Silicon Valley Bank was seized by regulators on March 10. On March 8, the "small" banks had seen their deposits fall year to date by 0.5%. "Large" banks had seen their deposits fall by 3%. By March 15, the "small" banks had lost 2.9% of deposits year to date, while the "large" banks saw their deposits only down 2% year to date. In the wake of the SVB collapse the large banks increased their deposits by a full percentage point of their opening year figure, while "small" banks lost 1.4% of their deposits. Throughout that week the media was talking up how it was the "small" banks that were most at risk--at the time SVB was the 14th largest bank in the US. First Republic was either 15 or 16 on that list. Both were firmly within the 25 largest bank list.
Why, then, all the hullabaloo over how "small" and "regional" banks were at risk? Why use obviously deceptive language like that?
Can small banks survive even if large banks crash? Yes. As long as there is a source of liquidity to keep the bank operating, there is no reason for a widespread contagion effect
Ahh. You've definitely clarified that for me. And as you pointed raised more questions!😉 thank you for taking the time.
Yes the media's obsfucation re SVB and FN, made me think that it was more a case that someone wanted SVB devalued enough to enable a cheap purchase or a policy change re bailouts. BTJMO, I'm a suspicious sort these days😉
Thank you for doing what you do🙏
The FERAL Reserve (which is neither federal, nor does it have any real reserves) is really playing with fire now!