The breadth of labor market dysfunction, and the longevity of that dysfunction, have combined within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary once again to produce a narrative of ongoing weakness and decline. Instead of single episode of dramatic labor market collapse, with the JOLTS report we get an ongoing death of ten thousand cuts. Instead of a labor shock we are getting persisent, inexorable, and seemingly unstoppable labor market decline.
Links And Sources
February Job Openings And Labor Turnover Summary: https://archive.ph/wsbse
February JOLTS Summary, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTIm
”November JOLTS: "Little Changed" Means "Still Getting Worse"“: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/november-jolts-little-changed-means
February JOLTS Summary, 2024-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1GYRS
Hiring vs Separations: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H8mW
Net Hiring, 2024-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1Cv
Net Hiring, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1CB
Net Hiring, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTPp
Net Hiring, Trade, Transporatation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1DK
Net Hiring, Professional and Business Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1Dt
Net Hiring, Leisure and Hospitality: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1DW
JOLTS Hiring By Sector, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1GYPP
Hiring vs Unemployment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BU0w
Quits and Layoffs vs Unemployment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1IJ
Quits vs Layoffs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTPd
“Tight Labor Markets?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/strong-labor-markets
“The Jobs Recession Is Here”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/the-jobs-recession-is-here
“JOLTS Report Says Nothing Has Changed. That's The Problem”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/jolts-report-says-nothing-has-change
“December JOLTS: Fake Job Openings Show "Little Change", Actual Hiring Shows Not So Little Decline”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/december-jolts-fake-job-openings
Thanks Peter for this interesting analysis of the JOLTS reports (current & past). No doubt the stagnation of wage growth is very troubling & magnifies any increase in inflation (no matter how small) & the past affect of previous high interest rates on current consumer goods pricing, which have risen over the post COVID period.
Hopefully this unfavorable trend will subside sometime in the foreseeable future. It is currently unclear how or why that will happen, but we shall see.
Thanks again & take care.
My guess is that is what Trump might be trying to do with his tariff program. I’m not so sure that is the right tool & think his deregulation efforts might be more productive.
As I noted in my previous comment, we shall see & hope there is some success in the foreseeable future.
Thanks.
I am convinced that what I call the "jobs recession" is by far the most important economic issue this country faces.
If there is strong demand for labor, wages will rise. They must.
If people are employed in high demand jobs, they will prosper. They must.
In such an environment, the need for a social safety diminishes. It must.
We do not need Keynesian "stimulus" packages that seek to replace market demand with government spending. However, we do need more jobs and more people with jobs.
That this country needs desperately.